NEAR TERM: (WED-THU)
Period begins with a cold front moving through the state today bringing a reprieve from the humidity at least for a day. This front will stall over northern Louisiana with rain chances continuing along the southern border. The rest of us will be dry on Wednesday as high pressure moves through bringing sunshine and warm temps but with low humidity making the mornings and evenings quite comfortable. Rain chances do return though on Thursday afternoon as an upper low moves through the state. These will be isolated to widely scattered in nature. Rain amounts will remain under an inch and temps will remain below average. Humidity levels will start to creep up Thursday evening as southerly flow returns.
Period begins with high pressure over the region from the mid levels down. Upper level disturbances are poised to move through the mean flow throughout the period as high pressure shifts to the east through the weekend and southerly flow returns in earnest. As disturbances move through the region, they will move into a rich, moist atmosphere bringing at least a chance for rainfall each day. Rainfall amounts will remain generally under one inch through the period.
Rainfall chances will be completely determined on how strong a layer of Saharan Dust, currently moving through the Caribbean will be in the mid levels. This phenomenon is very common this time of year, albeit forecasts do have it one of the strongest ones in 50 years or so. This could cause an area of sinking air over the region, reducing any rain chances at all leaving us with hazy skies and slightly cooler weather due to the reduced sunshine over the weekend. Forecast reflects the temperature aspect of this setup and I did undercut guidance in regard to the rainfall chances given the mid range guidance not really picking up on dusting events well. Will maintain low end pops for this forecast period albeit not overall enthused about it. Northern Arkansas would stand the best chance given the later arrival of the dust layer. Will continue to monitor the progress for this part of the forecast.
Dust layer does subside early next week with temps climbing to near 90 and rain chances remaining as we head into July.
One thing to note with the dust layer is it will create awesome sunrises and sunsets but will not be as good for those with allergy and asthma issues.
~Chief Forecaster Derek