NEAR TERM (MON/TUE)
Period begins with a high pressure shifting off to the east and an upper level low developing to the west. This will send a wave of energy along a warm front overnight and early Monday leading to scattered showers, mainly across the south. The warm front will lift north of the area by Monday evening with southerly flow returning. To the north and west, a stronger system will be developing and approaching the region. This system is expected to bring widespread convection to the state Monday night and Tuesday. Given overall timing, severe threat is low during both periods with mainly small hail and gusty wind potential. Most likely this will be in the form of an MCS as it propagates out of the Plains and through the state. Accordingly, this is expected to weaken during the morning hours on Tuesday before regenerating along boundaries Tuesday afternoon. As such there is a small severe risk on Tuesday afternoon and evening, albeit the greater risk will be east of the state. Heavy rainfall is possible with this system as well given high PWATS ahead of it, but the speed of it should preclude and any flooding issues this go around. Timing for severe weather, if any, as of now looks to be Monday night midnight to 5am and then again on Tuesday from 1pm-6pm. Of course, any small deviations in speed will change timing accordingly. Overall a very conditional risk for this event. With strong southerly flow in place, temps will warm to well above average by Tuesday evening area wide behind the departing system.
Period begins with zonal flow aloft across the region and southerly to southwesterly surface flow. An upper ridge will be strengthening across the Gulf states and expanding into the region. To the west, we will see a trough deepening along the west coast. That trough is expected to eject towards our region of the country by Friday with increasing southwesterly flow.
Wednesday and Thursday will be the best days of the period with temps in the 70s/80s and abundant sunshine underneath the aforementioned ridge. As we head towards Friday though, things will start to change once again. The trough mentioned above will bring an unsettled weather pattern to end the week. There are timing differences as of now with one solution bringing a closed low into the plains and slower with the other an open wave and quicker. Given the ridge to the southeast, the forecast favors a slower solution and reflects as such. This system will bring a cold front through the state late Friday and Saturday. Ahead of the front showers and thunderstorms are possible with very strong upper level energy moving through. The overall synoptic upper level pattern favors strong to severe weather during the time frame. Only thing really precluding any outlooks is the timing differences as all medium range guidance and analogs favor the severe setup. This will be updated subsequent forecasts in the days ahead as these differences get worked out. Forecast will feature the thunderstorm activity for Friday and Saturday at this time, with clearing late Saturday afternoon behind the front. Above average temps for Friday with closer to normal on Saturday. Would not be surprised to see a severe risk both days if things slow down a bit more in the coming and this will be monitored closely. Too soon to talk risks and other modes currently. Skies will clear behind the front with zonal flow returning to the state and sunny skies to end the weekend.
Stay with us as we track these two systems this week and keep you ahead of the storm.
~Chief Forecaster Derek