Period begins with frontal boundary just south of the state. This front has been responsible for rainfall and a lot of it the last 48 hours or so. Pattern will persist over the near term as southwest flow aloft will leave a rich atmosphere over head. Most activity will be seen generally during the heat of the afternoon when all of the contents of the atmosphere will be readily available. Cold front will begin to approach late in the period bringing a better chance for convection. If this front moves slower than anticipated then a flood threat could materialize with already high soil moisture content in place.
Temps through the period will be highly dependent on cloud cover but with less cloud cover expected at to just above normal temps could materialize.
Period will begin with a cold front passing through the state and stalling near the southern border. With steady stream of moisture aloft out of the southwest, showers and thunderstorms will be possible especially early in the period. With the main lift and energy well to the north of the state, severe weather is not expected although a stray severe downburst is possible.
As we head into the weekend, data diverges on the recently talked about cool down in which was somewhat anticipated. They show a ridge developing over the southeastern U.S. with another ridge to the southwest. The front will be slowly approaching the state by the end of the period but could be delayed or even halted depending the strength and location of the ridge. Have held off adding any higher pops to the weekend at this time as all the finer details get worked out. Once the high does shift, the front could bring more active weather to the state, to what extent remains to be seen.
Warming trend will be noted through the period as temps warm to at to slightly above normal range by the weekend. Humidity may creep back in here as well as the aforementioned front on Wednesday looks like it could move back north as a warm front by the weekend.