Period begins with surface high pressure bringing cool and dry air to the state. Clearing was noted on satellite for some but that will change this evening. Clouds will increase again ahead of our next disturbance currently in Texas, bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms to the state starting late tonight across the southwest and overspreading the state during the day on Sunday. Arkansas will be on the cool side of the system with a frontal boundary remaining to the south of the state so no severe weather is expected even though southerly flow will start and overrunning pattern over the stalled front. Rain will clear from southwest to northeast during the evening on Sunday, albeit some rainfall is likely to linger along the boundary into Monday morning across the south.
The boundary will start to lift north as a warm front in response to a developing surface low in the Plains and high pressure shifting away from the region. This will bring increasing moisture and warmer temps to the forecast on Monday. It will be dry on Monday other than a stray shower along the boundary as it lifts north with any forcing remaining well to the west of the state. We should see some sunshine as well, especially south of the warm front as it lifts northward. Any rainfall activity with the next system will be confined to the long term.
Well I am sure this will come to no surprise, but the extended will feature more rain and thunderstorm chances. But it will also feature warm weather and sunshine. Let’s dig in.
Period begins with a surface low in the Plains moving eastward and a warm front draped just north of the state. At the same time, a shortwave trough will be ejecting across the region. Given the influx of warm and moist air coupled with the wind energy of the vort max, rain and thunderstorm chance will increase on Tuesday. Given the high PWAT values with the influx of Gulf moisture, heavy rainfall is a good possibility once again. The other side of this system will be any severe weather chances. As of today, have included strong thunderstorm possible wording into this package. Moisture, shear, energy, and lift will all be present on Tuesday. One thing that looks to be lacking as of now is instability return given lack of atmospheric heating. That being said, climo favors this setup as being one that could be an isolated severe weather event. Will opt to leave severe wording out for now but I do expect an outlook for Tuesday in the coming days. Do expect this to be a conditional potential and nothing like what we saw Thursday night, but it is watchable. Forecast will reflect likely chances for convection tapering late Tuesday evening as the entire system shifts east of the area.
Wednesday and Thursday will be the premier days in this outlook. Ridging will build into the region mid-week with dry weather, sunshine and very warm temperatures. Given rich southerly flow, we will have to deal with a little extra humidity as well. This will be a spring in full force feel. Thursday we could see areas in the south get very close to 90 but given soil moisture, do feel that we fall just short of that.
This reprieve in the rainfall will be short lived as an even stronger system approaches late in the period. A strong upper level low will approach the state Friday with a cold front. This system will be moving into a warm and very moist warm sector. It is still a bit early as guidance is still not sold on track, strength or placement of dynamics, but the setup does favor another watchful eye for strong to severe thunderstorm potential. Given the setup, have brought in higher chances with this package as well as highlighted this day for that potential and reflected in the forecast. That cold front will bring lingering thunderstorm chances into Saturday as well, before ushering in a bit more seasonable airmass for the weekend.
Stay tuned for the latest blogs and forecast updates as we continue to track each weather maker in earnest throughout the upcoming week.
~Chief Forecaster Derek