Period begins with a weak front dropping through the state with cloud cover expected to remain across the area before slowly eroding towards sunrise. High pressure moves over the state on Saturday with clouds eroding allowing for a sunny day for the state and no rainfall. This will aid in temps warming somewhat, but given the cold and wet ground, have opted to undercut guidance on temps a bit other than southern sections which should warm nicely.
As we head towards Sunday and Monday the period will become a bit more active once again. A warm front lifts northward overnight Saturday and Sunday morning. With Warm air advection (WAA) starting, a few showers are possible during the day on Sunday mainly in the afternoon as another cold front begins to drop southeast toward the state. Southerly flow will bring warmer air briefly to the state along with an increase in moisture. By Monday the cold front will shift southeastward, with rain chances mostly confined to the southeastern half of the state. With ridiging to the east, this font looks to stall out and be a factor in the forecast into the extended. Behind the front, temps will drop back to seasonal levels.
Period begins with a cold front to our southeast and a shortwave trough moving through the Mississippi Valley during the day on Tuesday. With south westerly flow aloft and an overrunning moisture pattern, this will lead to ongoing rainfall chances from late Monday night through Tuesday evening with more isolated chances overnight.
As we head into mid-week a stronger storm system will move through the southwest flow aloft and bring additional chances for rainfall to the state. Given the overrunning setup through the end of next week, and the potential of heavy rainfall, flash flooding risk could become elevated and of course any river flooding would be aggravated given the amount of rainfall expected. Again if the frontal boundary changes position then the heaviest rainfall axis will shift with it. Latest guidance shifts the front just far enough south to where the heaviest QPF remains in the far southeastern corner of the state. This is still a couple days away so changes are expected. Also to note if there are any thunderstorms, then QPF amounts could be higher than already indicated. Not all of the rainfall will come at once, there will be periods of dry weather and wet weather throughout the period. It is best to stay abreast of forecast changes to plan accordingly and be prepared for rapidly changing conditions if you live near an area prone to flooding.
Another thing to note throughout this period will be overnight lows in northern Arkansas. Temps will be hovering near freezing most of next week in the north. This could aid in yet another, high elevation winter weather chance with lower elevations just a cold rain. If wintry weather does develop it would most likely be in the form of freezing rain and sleet given the ongoing WAA above our heads. CAA (cold air advection) will not be deep enough to aid in bringing more widespread winter weather, however the track of the low pressure late in the period will need to be watched if CAA is stronger than guidance currently indicates. Forecast reflects all liquid for now and I will watch the winter weather potential as we get closer.
Beyond Thursday, things do look to dry out for next weekend as high pressure moves into the state. This will bring normal February weather to the state along with sunshine. More active weather is possible just beyond the period.
Chief Forecaster Derek