SHORT RANGE (TUE-WED): Period begins with the southeast ridge beginning to reinsert itself back into the natural state, as a result, rain chances will be very limited across the natural state during the short range period in exception to northern AR as a upper level disturbance passes just to the north of the natural state. Severe weather is not expected during this period but as always, we are here keeping you updated!
Long Range (THU-MON): Period begins with the southeast ridge in place for your Thursday across the natural state. Heat indices may meet/exceed 105 especially across southern AR, which could lead to heat advisories being issued for this area if guidance continues to trend in this direction. Hit and miss thunderstorms will continue as we will be on the fringes of the ridge. As we move towards your holiday weekend, I have continued to trim rain chances for the natural state for the holiday as guidance continues to back off of any major storm systems during the period thanks to the ridge. Some uncertainty remains on how much of the ridge builds in for your holiday weekend. The GFS is indicating the potential of a backdoor cold front around this time which could lead to somewhat higher rainfall chances but will continue to monitor trends and update with future forecast packages.
~Senior Forecaster Cameron