Period begins with a cold front to the south of the state and rainfall tapering across the far southeast. Cooler and drier air is being ushered in with a Canadian high pressure. This will help skies clear out tonight and lead to temps near to below freezing in the Ozarks. Saturday will be the best day of the period, albeit a bit cooler than we have seen as of late. Clouds will increase late in the day once again as we shift to a southwesterly flow. This will bring yet another upper level disturbance through the state late Saturday night and Sunday. The atmosphere will be rather dry at first so have held precip off until after 3am Saturday night. An 850mb jet will be swinging in, allowing for just enough low-level moisture return to aid in precip production on Sunday. Sunday will be one of those chilly and raw Arkansas spring days. Rainfall through much of the morning and into the afternoon hours with temps only in the 50s. Not expecting any thunderstorms with this round, but a rumble of thunder is possible. That system will be fast moving with things drying out from west to east late Sunday night. Moisture return will increase in its wake even more, affecting us into the long range.
If your ready for a little sunshine and spring temps, I have that in this section. If you do not want thunderstorms or more rainfall, then keep on scrolling. We have both coming up this week.
Period begins with rich southwest flow afloat and a very active pattern with one system lined up after another on satellite today. Monday will be generally dry, but with strong WAA starting, we could see a stray shower. It will be mostly cloudy thanks to moisture increasing ahead of our next weather maker. Another upper level disturbance will approach the state from the west on Monday night. Southerly flow will increase ahead of it bringing in rich Gulf moisture back to the state. This system will aid in a warm front lifting north over the state Tuesday with rain and thunderstorms increasing. In a setup like the last few events, this one will need to be watched for strong to severe thunderstorms as well as heavy rainfall given higher than average PWAT values. Still plenty of details to work out with this system but given its proximity to the natural state we will need to watch this one closely. At this time anything looks to be isolated, but we know how that can change as we get closer.
We will catch a break mid-week as brief ridging builds into eh region, bringing drier and warmer weather to the state. This high will allow for temps to warm into the 70s and 80s with SUNSHINE and rain chances very low Wednesday and Thursday.
As we head towards Friday though, a new upper level low will start to approach the region from the west. Southerly flow will be abundant ahead of this feature as well as warm and moist air. This system will be bringing a cold front into the state. There are strength and timing differences amongst long range guidance as to how this system will evolve. Given climatology and the airmass ahead of it, this one will need to be watched as well for both strong thunderstorm potential and heavy rainfall potential as we get ready for the final weekend of March.
Of course, we will keep you updated on both systems and have information via blogs and daily updates. Keep checking back for your forecast as updates and changes are likely to occur as we get closer to both systems.
~Chief Forecaster Derek