EXTENDED: (TUE-SAT): Period begins with ridging just overhead/just to the east of the natural state. What this means is that we will have the chance for disturbances to move out of the Plains again and into at least the northern portions of the natural state. We are watching the tropics as well especially towards the mid/late part of your workweek, as northwest flow could allow for a weak tropical disturbance to move into Louisiana/Texas, leading to increased rainfall chances. I have not accounted for this in this forecast package as of now due to 1. The very weak nature of this potential “tropical system” 2. The uncertainty of the track of this system, if it develops at all. 3. The potential of the high to shift back westward, completely ruling out the potential of this system affecting the natural state but please monitor future forecast packages for the latest. With the high just to our south and east we will see southwesterly surface flow. This will keep hot and humid weather over the state, very typical for late July. Heat index values will not be unbearable but generally above 100 each afternoon. With northwest flow aloft setting up shop, this will allow for upper level energy to move closer or over Arkansas during the day interacting with the hot and humid weather. With additional cloud cover and rain chances, temps do lower a couple of degrees, and could be a tad high. No organized severe weather is expected, however an isolated severe storm will remain possible in the heat of the day next week.
~Senior Forecaster Cameron