Period will focus on the Halloween system with this forecast update.
Southerly flow ongoing across the state is setting the stage for an active Halloween across the state ahead of a cold front currently in eastern Oklahoma. The front will slowly move eastward with rainfall increasing along and behind the front. Rainfall will increase from west to east overnight and Wednesday and last into Thursday. Heavy rain is also possible with this system, albeit it remains to be seen how convection to our south will affect the moisture here. Have stayed the course with 1 to 3 inches and isolated areas of 4 possible in the heavier thunderstorms. This will be a slow moving system so flash flooding could become a concern and will be monitored closely. There is also a severe side to this system as well. A slight risk is out for southern Arkansas with a marginal risk extending into Central sections. Damaging winds are the primary threat as the main storm mode will be linear, however with the strong shear profiles, and isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Cold air aloft will allow for at least some hail formation, but with limited cape values near or under 1500k/jg do not expect anything big. This will also help to limit the severe threat as well with limited instability.
Rainfall will come to an end on Thursday as the upper low pulls away with clearing skies behind it. Another front will move in Friday bringing close and isolated showers. The GFS was the most aggressive with moisture profiles on this system but even it has backed off, and forecast reflects as such and my previous thinking that the moisture return would be limited.
Temps will start out above average but will transition to below or just near average during the period.
Period will once again be very active and wet as we head into the new work week. Aforementioned cold front will move back as a warm front Saturday, bringing moisture and warmer air to the state. This will be in response to a deepening trough of low pressure and cold frontal system as they begin to move towards the state. There is vast differences in guidance with this system with the Euro progressive and the GFS slower while the CMC is right down the middle. One thing that does catch my eye is the strength of the system and the return flow ahead of it. Have gone with a blended forecast to end the period but kept pops in the chance category for now. This will likely go up in future outlooks. Will need to watch this one for another strong to severe thunderstorm threat with cooler air behind it and warm, moist air ahead of it. A Lot of details still to be worked out but it does bare watching.
Temps will be up and down through the period but overall will be around to just above average for early November.