LONG RANGE: ...Little changes from yesterday's forecast package...*If you love fall, you're going to love the long range discussion* As we progress into the latter half of your work week, A fall front will begin to swing down towards the natural state. One of possibly two fronts will move in as we move towards Thursday as reflected off of the 7 day forecast. Now given the uncertainty of how strong the first punch is...I have went with a general 70s north & 80s south especially Friday as the cooler/drier air settles in. Guidance is however indicating that temperatures may struggle to get out of the 70s all day on Friday so late week's temperatures are still a low confidence forecast at this time. As we progress into the weekend, the second shot..which could be the strongest shot we've seen since spring, looks to move through. EURO, CMC & GFS have now indicated of the 2nd shot to be the strongest between the two fronts as it will have a much colder airmass behind it...I have started to reflect that off on the 7 day as of now given the brick wall trends of the guidance. I have kept south AR in the 70s for now for Monday but beyond Monday if the airmass were to be realized...Temperatures could be in the 60s statewide and if you slide with Euro...North may struggle to get out of the 50s but i'm not ready to go THAT cool as of now.
~Senior Forecaster Cameron