Period begins with a frontal boundary to the south of the state and moisture moving up and over aforementioned front. On Monday, an upper level system will pass over the state, bringing an increase in showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the heat of the afternoon. At the same time, the subtropical ridge will start to build west towards the natural state and be centered over the Gulf Coast by the end of the period. This will help to end any rainfall chances by Tuesday evening and send temperatures up to mid summer like values instead of early fall. With the high pressure in place, and abundant moisture, we will see heat index values head back to near 100.
Period begins with a warm and humid entrenched over the state. With the high pressure over the region, this will create a lot of subsidence aloft (sinking air) over the state, preventing any rain or thunderstorm development. Have left out rain chances mid-week to account for this setup. By the weekend, things diverge significantly in terms of fronts, rainfall, and timing. One thing is certain, warm and humid will persist, albeit being more clouds we should see temps come down a bit.
By friday, we will see the upper level ridge shift towards the east coast. To the west, a deep upper trough will be moving into the west and towards the Rocky mountain region. Between these two features, southwest flow will setup over the state yet again. This is not a favorable pattern if you want cooler air. With this setup, a cold front will be oscillating (shifting of high and low pressure systems) back and forth in the Plains as it dives south then moves back north. What this will do is set up a pattern in which MCS (Mesoscale Convective Systems) will become more likely. These small features may help to push the front into the state temporarily as rain cooled air helps to act as a mini cold front and cool things down. Unfortunately, these systems are very hard to forecast this far out, even as little as 12 hours out so pinpointing forecast accuracy for next weekend is low confidence. Have broad brushed rainfall chances next weekend with the highest in the north to account for this setup. Any remnant boundaries from these systems could help to spark off storms further south as well, but all is a wait and see approach. Confidence will increase later in the week as better sampling is received and we see just how far southeast the front will make it.
Regardless, a warm and humid air mass looks to establish itself for the foreseeable future and possibly beyond 10 days. Any rainfall will help to temporarily relieve us from it but it will return. There are signs beyond day 10 that the pattern could buckle, but I do not buy it at this time. We could see a flip from one season to the next instead of an easy transition, after all, it's happened once this year already.