Period begins with a ridge to the west and troughing to the east. In between a northwest flow aloft is present over the state. We have remained dry today and this will continue into the evening. Rain chances will increase some each day as a stalled frontal boundary gets positioned over the state. Rain chances will be highest in the northwest half of the state as impulses move along the flow aloft and into the state. These impulses are most likely to be in the form of MCSs once again leading to high rain chances to barely any over a short distance. Where these set up each day remains to be seen but will keep highest rain chances either side of the front. Rain chances will be highest towards the very end of this period and the start of the next as the conditions will be maximized for rainfall around the state and the ridge weakens to our west allowing the front to move further into the state. Cape values will be decent but shear values will be weak leading to thunderstorm potential but a very low severe threat. Given the clouds and rain around, afternoon highs will be below average accordingly.
Saturday into Sunday will feature additional rain chances as impulses still ride along the weakening front. Rain chances lower a bit each day to more of a typical July forecast. By Monday afternoon, the ridge will start to build back in cutting off rain chances and increasing the heat once again. Given the humidity values, heat index values will push 100 by Monday and most likely exceed 100 just beyond the period.
~Chief Forecaster Derek