Period begins with a front to the west and ridge to the southeast and a steady stream of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This flow will help to set the stage for several days of heavy rainfall and isolated severe weather. Tuesday will be the start of this setup.
Most of the day should remain dry but late in the afternoon and evening, a complex of showers and thunderstorms will be gathering in Oklahoma and push towards Arkansas. This system will bring a strong to severe thunderstorm threat in the northwestern sections of the state closest to the front. Given all day destabilization in the warm sector and shear levels increasing as we go into the evening, severe weather does look possible across northwest Arkansas. This font will slowly sag towards the state overnight and Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms continuing along it. This will bring rain and thunderstorms across the state on Wednesday with heavy rainfall the main issue. Given ongoing clouds and rainfall, instability levels should remain in check and limit the overall severe threat. Regardless, enough wind share remain present to bring a damaging wind risk during the day on Wednesday and overnight. Given colder air aloft, lapse rates will be supportive of large hail as well. Both days the tornado risk will be dependent on if the storm can get away from the pack on their own and not congeal into an MCS or linear modes. That being said, the threat is there given the time of year.
The front will continue to sag into the state through Thursday with showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread. Given ongoing convection, this will limit the severe threat but an isolated severe thunderstorm could be seen. Heavy rainfall will be seen through the period with a period total of widespread 2-4” with locally over 5” seen. This will aggravate a delicate flooding situation given an already saturated ground.
Temps will remain fairly close to average during the period.
Period begins with aforementioned front shifting just a bit south as the high pressure starts to break down. This front will stall out to the south with showers and thunderstorms continuing into the weekend, albeit becoming more scattered in nature as the low pressure shifts away from the region. Sunday will be generally dry with only and isolated shower or storm. Early next week a new storm system will be getting its act together to our west. With return flow ongoing across the region, showers and thunderstorms will become possible, if not likely once again. Heavy rainfall is also a good possibility once again.
A Lot to go over and follow each day but we will do our best to keep you ahead of the storm.
~Chief Forecaster Derek