Period begins with increasing cloud cover as high pressure moves east of the area as moisture begins to increase ahead of an approaching trough. That trough will approach the state from the west with moisture increasing rapidly across the state. This will lead to afternoon shower activity. Some rumbles of thunder are possible as well. Have kept chance pops for the daylight hours Sunday as the main system will not affect us until Sunday night. Sunday night into Monday the trough will move through the region. Dynamics and stability are expected to increase as the system moves through leading to isolated thunderstorm activity as well. Given nocturnal inversion and marginal dynamics severe weather threat for Sunday night into Monday looks very low, but a strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
On Monday a weak front will enter northwest Arkansas as the trough begins to move east. Ample moisture and instability will still be in place around the state. We could see a lull in the action during the morning into the early afternoon hours but an uptick in convection is expected with plenty of moisture and instability in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again Monday afternoon and evening some of which could be strong. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main threat but given low level winds out of the south to southeast, tornado threat is not zero. Again very low risk but will be watched.
As we head through Monday night into Tuesday, the southern stream will undergo amplification as a strong upper low moves in from the west. A cold front will be slowly moving through the state interacting with abundant moisture content. This front will act as a divider between the warm/moist/unstable air to the south and the more stable/cooler air to the north. Where this front ends up is crucial to the heavy rainfall part and severe part of this forecast. Overall best dynamics will be south of the state on Tuesday, but given a rich warm sector with a strong upper low, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible along and south of the warm front. All modes are possible given shear values surrounding the low pressure system. Damaging winds look to be the primary threat with the strongest storms but once again the tornado threat is not zero. Placement of the front could still change so this part of the forecast very much in limbo over the next 48 hours. Front stalls north, heaviest axis and severe moves north, if ti south both move south.
By Tuesday night, the system will be moving through the state with the cold front bringing stable air to the entire state by early Wednesday morning. It is here where the system is expected to stall and pivot to the northeast, keeping rain chances into the extended.
Temps over the period will be near to above average.
Period begins with the upper low shifting east of the area with rainfall ongoing as a rich moisture plume continues to track over the state. This plume will slowly move south and east on Wednesday leading to decreasing chances for rain from north to south. Rainfall will linger in the south through Wednesday evening. Overall through the entire storm system a widespread 1-3 inches is expected with 3+ possible in parts of southern and eastern Arkansas. Excessive rain is shifting into an area that does not need it so the flash flood threat is increasing to an extent and this will be monitored. Would not be surprised to see isolated areas of 5+ inches by Wednesday night.
Beyond Wednesday, high pressure will take control of our weather with sunny days, clear nights and spring warmth. Temps above normal throughout the period heading into the first weekend of March.
~Chief Forecaster Derek