Period begins with a cool air mass in place across the state. This high pressure area will slowly shift east as the subtropical ridge starts to build west. The result will be return flow from the Gulf and warming trend over the weekend. A weak warm front will approach from the south and will help to spark a few a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not anticipated as the overall dynamics are very weak with the system. Warm and humid air will entrench across the region behind the front.
Period begins with a warm and humid air mass entrenched across the state. Being on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, disturbances will move around it, bringing a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorm each afternoon. By Friday, guidance is severely all over the place in regards to the large trough over the north and approaching cold front. Timing, strength and placement are still of rather low confidence, as is expected at this time period. One thing to note, is current hurricane in the Pacific is expected to move into the desert southwest with a rich moisture feed along an increasing southwest flow. This could slow the progress of the front or help to increase rain chances align the front as it approaches the state. Both of these will be watched as we get a better handle on a very dynamic atmospheric setup. Have broad brushed precip chances for now until better confidence is realized. Guidance does bring temps back down from anywhere to average to well below average. Am keeping temps up for now, as it fits better with Climo but will watch latter trends as we get closer to next weekend. The fall roller coaster continues. Severe threat is low as of now as well.