LONG RANGE (FRI-MON): Period begins with trough vs southeast ridge...A brand new & powerful surface low pressure looks to develop along the rocky mountains around Thursday and push eastward. Guidance continues to show uncertainty in overall timing with this low pressure as it will run into the ridge. The potential of severe weather, which could be significant depended on which scenario you look at, will be present for our area during the Friday/Saturday timeframe as the instability & dynamics will favor for the potential of all modes of severe weather. As said, current uncertainty is the overall timing of this system as a early timeframe could reduce the overall potential of severe weather for the natural state, while a slower timeframe could put us at a very big risk for severe weather and also for the potential of some flooding. As such, SPC has not released a risk area as of now due to this great uncertainty but will continue to watch guidance trends over the next 1-2 days as the system will be sampled by the upper air network and we should have a better handle as we move towards Wednesday. Outside this system, a cold front looks to swing through the region during the early part of the weekend bringing in somewhat cooler air for the end of the weekend into the early part of next week.
~Senior Forecaster Cameron