SHORT RANGE (WED-FRI): Period begins with the southeast ridge surging a return flow across our area late tonight into the day on Wednesday into Wednesday night out ahead of our next weather maker. Severe weather, with all modes, are on the cards for Thursday with uncertainties regarding timing. An earlier timing would result in a much lower severe weather event vs a afternoon timing which could result in a significant severe weather event for most if not all of the natural state Thursday afternoon. Have gone with the middle ground of both and have kept the "severe weather potential" in the forecast with highs soaring into the 70s and even low 80s especially in southern AR. The upper level system will send a powerful cold front shooting southward during the day on Friday with some isolated storms possible in far southern AR on Friday with a 1035-1040 MB high coming into place Friday night into Saturday. A potential freeze COULD be possible if these conditions are met: 1. Little to no cloud cover. 2. A very deep surge of cold air, which will likely modify as it pushes towards Arkansas due to the lack of snowpack to our north. No winter weather is expected with this surge of cold air as it could be the last cold surge we see for a while as the southeast ridge once again begins to reinsert itself by late in the period.
LONG RANGE (SAT-TUE): Period begins with the Canadian ridge centered over the middle part of the country with it beginning to shift eastward by late in the weekend into the early part of next week. This will send southerly flow back over the state by the Sunday/Monday timeframe before yet a another powerful system looks to bring more storm chances to the natural state. Yes...I know I sound like a broken record talking about storm chances. This could also bring the potential of severe weather as the atmosphere may have the time to become unstable before this system moves in due to the southeast ridge in place. Daytime highs will start in the 40s & 50s and climb to the 60s & 70s by the end of the long range period with no major cold shot on the horizon. As far as early next week is concerned, SPC is keeping a close watch on it but no risk has been issued as of now.
~Senior Forecaster Cameron