LONG RANGE (THU-SUN): Period begins with a very powerful upper level low out towards our west beginning to develop on Wednesday bringing the potential of severe weather to Texas/Oklahoma. This will increase the surge of return flow over the natural state sending temps into the upper 70s/low 80s. Some guidance is indicating the potential of mid 80s especially in south AR but have decided to trend a tad cooler due to some cloud cover being present during the Wednesday timeframe. As we move into Thursday, this upper level system will begin to take on a negative tilt out towards our west as we runs into a massive southeast ridge towards our east. This will set the stage for severe weather on Thursday and even into Friday if the system is not moving fast enough. All modes of severe weather could be possible on Thursday and I'm quite concerned about the potential of tornadoes on Thursday. SPC has not placed a risk area out yet due to some uncertainties in last night's guidance runs but a risk area will likely be needed over the next day or so. This system will also send a cold front through the natural state on Friday bringing in near/below normal temperatures to the natural state with guidance indicating the potential of some freezing temps in far northern AR Friday night/Saturday AM. This airmass will modify greatly as it pushes southward given 1. the time of year 2. lack of snowpack to our north. This, however, will send temperatures into the 50s for highs and overnight lows into the 30s & 40s. Winter precip is not expected with this airmass. A rouge system will develop to the southwest late Sunday into early Monday bringing in more rain chances to the natural state especially south AR. No severe weather is currently expected with this shortwave.
~Senior Forecaster Cameron