After a mild period, today was much cooler. We will see this trend continue during the period as well. A series of weak disturbances will affect the state over the next 24 to 36 hours and bring showers to the state. The first one will affect central and south Arkansas through mid-day Thursday. This will be generally light and northern Arkansas may see only limited coverage. By Thursday afternoon, an upper-level trough will move southeastward towards the state. This will push a cold front into the state by Thursday night bringin widespread showers and rainfall to the state. Highest coverage will be over the southern half of the state but rain is expected everywhere. Rainfall will slowly shift east by mid-day Friday. Moisture should be out of northern Arkansas before temps drop to freezing Thursday night but this will be watched closely.
Friday night, HIgh pressure will be settling in over the state. With clear skies, temperatures will tank for much of the state after dark. In fact, we will see some of the coldest air in quite a while in the state. Saturday morning we will be in the 20s to near 30 with even a few teens in the higher elevations of northwest Arkansas. Under sunny skies Saturday, temps should recover nicely but still be chilly.
The biggest story in the period will be the cold air, but could something else be lurking??
Period will begin with the high pressure shifting east of the state allowing for some very slight moisture return on Sunday. With this, skies will be generally cloudy and temps quite cool for November.
The pattern will become highly amplified yet again to start the new work week. This is where things get interesting. Guidance has backed off somewhat on the moisture levels with the GFS dry, the EURO still with moisture and the Canadian down the middle. Also to note, even the afternoon ensemble packages had some sort of moisture overriding the cold air. Using this as guidance and the atmospheric setup, have taken a middle of the road approach on this and left slight chance of precipitation on Monday and Monday night. With the setup and colder air working in, IF moisture is present, it would favor a mix of rain and snow for the north or a very limited changeover. It is also important to note looking at the setup, a trough that is this highly amplified, typically does not need much moisture to produce some snow. Taking this into account, the forecast will reflect a combo of guidance and the setup, also taking into account limited moisture. Have added rain/snow mix for the north on Monday with rain elsewhere with a very low end chance at this time. If this were to come to fruition, we could see that line shift southward maybe to the 40 corridor or just south but for now will leave it for north, especially with the experience dealing with similar setups. This all will be monitored in the coming days and forecast changes are likely to occur as we get closer. Highs may be a bit to warm on Monday, but went conservative for now. It is very possible that these will be met early in the day as cold air works in.
Beyond Monday, high pressure settles in with cold days and nights under sunny skies.