Period begins with an upper level disturbance moving into the state with rainfall gradually increasing. This will be the case over the next 24 to 36 hours as this system moves through. Instability is very low with this system so any thunderstorms are not expected. Rainfall amounts will remain light, generally an inch or less will be seen, the heaviest confined to south Arkansas. Rainfall will clear out by Friday morning with sunshine returning for the weekend.
I left highs below guidance on Thursday to account for precip, clouds, and a northeasterly winds. These tend to keep temps cooler, in fact mid 50s may be generous and could end up lower but steady temps are expected. We will see a warming trend through the remainder of the period.
Hurricane Willa in the Pacific met her demise over the mountains of Mexico, as this forecaster had a hunch it would. The circulation go ripped apart, with only mid to high level moisture remaining, generally over Texas. This is now expected to stay south of us, therefore only light to moderate rainfall expected.
Tranquil to start the period on Sunday ahead of a cold front that will move through the state. This cold front should be generally dry, albeit an isolated shower cannot be ruled out in the north. Behind the front, temps will be cooler but not anything we haven't already seen. High pressure ridge out west will shift east through mid-week giving us a warm-up and westerly flow, limiting rain chances. Towards mid to late week, rain chances increase yet again as another disturbance moves towards the state. This one does look more potent, but with guidance all over the place and the flow aloft west to northwest, any chance of severe weather looks low at this time. Have added a small chance of rain for Halloween, this will mainly be for the evening hours as guidance is still off on timing as well. I expect to see at least a few showers around, and possibly a few thunderstorms if conditions are met. Again this is still very early and guidance has slowly pushed things back to just beyond the period to Thursday into Friday. Regardless a mild Halloween is in store for the natural state.