Well the long awaited pattern change awaits us across the natural state and it looks like it will finally entrench. We must get through a few more days first. Monday will be our last really hot day as the ridge starts to shift away from the state. As the ridge starts to move away, the trough and associated front will approach the region from the west. The trough will be deepening upon approach with the front. Rain and thunderstorms will increase along the front Tuesday afternoon and night. Severe weather is possible across the northwestern parts of the state. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat but with increasing shear, all modes could become possible. Soundings will be monitored closely as we get closer. Severe weather threat is questionable beyond Tuesday night due to the front timing with most guidance advancing the front rapidly through the state. With this timing, this would limit a threat elsewhere due to decreased instability. Regardless, rain and thunderstorms will be possible as the front moves through. Colder air will quickly be moving in behind the front as high pressure settles into the region with 40s and 50s seen by Thursday morning.
One thing to note is where Tropical Storm Michael eventually ends up. Current forecasts will take it quickly east of the state with little if any impacts to the state. If it moves a bit faster and catches the front say in Louisiana, then we could get some tropical moisture along the front. This looks very unlikely but will be monitored.
Period will begin with Michael approaching the Gulf Coast near Florida and a surface high pressure settling into the region. Underneath this high, dry, crisp, fall air will be in place. Rain chances will be non existent through the end of the week. Over the weekend, another cold front will be moving through mostly bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler air. There will be a small chance of a shower along it but most will remain dry. Surfacece high will strengthen behind the front leaving us with a cool fall air mass in place. Temps will be well below average throughout the period with a general 60s for highs and 40s and 50s for lows. Needless to say, let the color change begin.