LONG RANGE (SAT-TUE): Period will begin with a new storm system which will develop towards our west late this week into the early parts of the weekend. Thankfully for us here in AR, the front that will swing through during the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe will squash the southeast ridge, at least temporarily, to keep it from pushing this system off to our northwest and causing a potential widespread event. The overall track of this low will have to be monitored for that potential as it will be bottoming out as it moves eastward across the region. Regardless of severe weather or not, widespread shower & thunderstorm activity looks to return for Easter across the natural state. As of now, I have highlighted "Monitoring for severe wx" on Easter given the current uncertainty on the severe weather potential. SPC is monitoring the potential and a risk could be issued once guidance becomes clearer on the overall track. Behind this system, some of the coldest air we've seen in a while, looks to make a return for the early part of next week with some guidance indicating north AR may stay in the 40s especially on Monday. I have trended a tad warmer given the April sun and gone with 50s widespread for now but will watch trends closely. Overnight lows will range from the 30s to 40s statewide to close out the long range period.
~Senior Forecaster Cameron