Good evening everyone! This is senior forecaster Cameron back here again and I will be going over everything you need to know regarding this potential winter mess coming up this weekend. Firstly, I would like to personally state that 1. This is currently a UNSAMPLED storm system so every forecast right now is low confidence until we can get it sampled and hopefully get a better idea to what's going to happen. 2. This is probably the hardest forecast the team has faced in quite a while and We'll probably need an aleve by the end of this system lol! This system has a ton of potential to be either a cold rain or either a winter storm for The Natural State. Now lets dig into everything you need to know regarding the latest data and our current data.
Ladies and Gentlemen, I present Scenario #1. In this scenario, The system would be called a "Gulf Coast Runner". With a track like this, More cold air will be able to filter down into the natural state and will be able to counteract the WAA (Warm Air Advection) and lead to possibly a decent winter event or even a storm across the natural state. However "event" is a better term in this situation as the system will be progressive in natural so snow totals may be cut in some places. North AR would have to be watched for a potential dry slot that could limit snow amounts up there IF this scenario pans out. At this time, this scenario has a 60% shot of happening.
Ladies and Gentlemen, I present Scenario #2. In this scenario, the system would move further north and take a track through north LA in which you're currently seeing in guidance and even in some forecasts. This scenario has MAJOR flaws in it. It can happen but there's a lot working against it. Firstly, the high to the north...This system would have to be a very strong system to fight against the current flow in the atmosphere. The subtropical jet is currently position from California to Florida at this time and that will be steering the system, at the same time, a strong high will be pushing north into Alaska leading to a serious shot of cold air being sent down into the US including The Natural State. Secondly, the cold air will have to be shallow as well and in this scenario, the cold air gets taken over by the WAA and would lead to more rain vs winter precip in The Natural State. This scenario, in our opinions, has a 40% shot of happening at this current time.
This is what we face at this current time. The system will be approaching the California coast by this time tomorrow evening so we should hopefully have a better picture on what's going to be happening as we move into next weekend.
THIS IS NOT A FORECAST!
This map is our current thinking on what's going to be happening as we move into this weekend. Snow looks to be the calling card for north Arkansas as cold air will be much greater up there. As you move south, regarding on what happens with the WAA (Warm Air Advection), Central Arkansas will start off as rain then transition over to a wintry mix then to all snow as the system pulls away. At this time, this mix area could move further south or further north. South Arkansas is in a major question mark right now. Depending on what happens with the WAA...You will have primary rain going over to a mix as the system pulls away. HOWEVER I want to stress this given previous events is basically screaming ice for south...IF the WAA is not present or not as strong as model guidance has it, this could lead to more wintry mix down in south Arkansas. As of now, have pushed the cold rain to nearly out of the state given the cold air will be stronger. But in previous situations, the WAA has been weaker or nonexistent and has lead to ice down in south Arkansas before. If the WAA is stronger then you will stay primary rain down in south Arkansas. Overall everyone, this is our latest thinking regarding this weekend's situation.
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