First I want to focus on Tuesday into Wednesday. This looks to be mostly a north Arkansas event. That being said, this afternoon data has come in colder and now brings a light winter mix to central and north Tuesday afternoon and night into Wednesday morning. Also It keeps North Arkansas below freezing for the duration. This would lead to higher totals of snow and ice. This wont be a big deal at all but we could see some 1 inch totals of snow/sleet and 1/8 to 1/4 inch of ice depending how long the cold air is in place and how much precip falls. This is the lighter of the two events. Below is the Nam for Tuesday night and the GFS around the same time. DONT TAKE THIS AS A FORECAST ONLY ONE DATA RUN. This has been very consistent last few days. One thing they are having trouble with is the timing of the cold air, which is to be expected. My best guess is areas from Ft Smith to Conway to Memphis and points north will see a winter mix at the onset, with areas from Fayetteville to Clinton to Jonesboro staying mostly frozen precip through the event. But you can see the disagreement among the models, hence why this could end up being a "nowcast" event.
This is my thinking as of right now and not a forecast as of yet. We will have a detailed forecast once we get a better handle on the situation. Long days and nights ahead for us at Arkansas Weather Watchers but we love what we do.
NORTH: WINTRY MIX LATE TUES PM SNOW/SLEET FAR NORTH ARKANSAS
CENTRAL: RAIN/SLEET TO RAIN
NORTH: AM RAIN PM SNOW A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
CENTRAL: RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, AT LEAST AN INCH POSSIBLE
SOUTH: RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM DEQUEEN TO CAMDEN TO HELENA
Stay tuned as this is subject to change. Remember this is just my thinking and not an official forecast yet. Have a great night and God Bless.
~Senior Forecaster Derek