First is the EURO. This model has been the most consistent the last several days. Ice and snow for most of the northern half of the state. The EURO also wants to pound us with one of the worst ice storms in a while. Now I don't fully buy the major ice storm solution, but it has stuck with its idea of a wintry V-day. Do not take this literally as it will change. This is the 12Z Euro amounts for snow and ice. This track of what falls where has not moved, almost moved south since Saturday. Snow in the far northeast and ice from northwest through central and into north Mississippi.
NORTH ARKANSAS: SNOW ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER AND MOST OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TURNING TO SLEET.
REST OF NORTH ARKANSAS FROM A FT SMITH TO CLINTON TO MARION LINE, MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET.
CENTRAL ARKANSAS: THE BATTLE ZONE COULD BE SEEN HERE. FROM A FT SMITH TO WALDRON TO CONWAY TO LITTLE ROCK TO WEST MEMPHIS TO HELENA, VERY SMALL SECTION OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS COULD SEE BRIEF FREEZING RAIN TRANSISTIONING TO RAIN. THE KINK IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE TEMP STAYS BELOW OR AT 32. THIS WOULD GIVE THIS SECTION A PROLONGED ICING EVENT INSTEAD OF A SHORT LIVED ONE. REST OF THE AREA IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL SEE A COLD RAIN
SOUTH ARKANSAS: YOU WILL SEE MAINLY A COLD RAIN, EXCEPTION COULD BE THE SOUTHERN OUACHITAS WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR IF CONDITONS SET UP RIGHT.
ALL AREAS, REGARDLESS OF PRECIP TYPE WILL START OUT AS SLEET AS THE AIR MOISTENS UP FROM ALL THIS DRY AIR WE HAVE HAD.
As you can see a lot of details still have to be worked out regarding this set up. With evaporation cooling, temps will fall to meet the dew point, another kink in the forecast that could throw it off more. Regardless with all the V-day activities coming up Sunday, this is a forecast you need to watch closely. The slightest temp change could have major issues. We will continue to watch this as the latest data comes in and any potential changes that will take place. We will have an official forecast Thursday night and a winter weather outlook map by Friday night.
~Senior Forecaster Derek