Looking at the newest data today, the NAM remains the most aggressive in regards to the right conditions for severe thunderstorms. I will include a couple graphics and information on them after I get through this introduction. The GFS and Euro have been really consistent in having a very strong low pressure in the upper Midwest and then taking it on into Canada. The low pressure will bring a strong cold front through the state on Monday night. Ahead of this cold front, there will be the potential for some isolated to scattered showers. At this time, it looks like the thunderstorm threat will remain non-existent due to lack of instability. This will change as we get into the late afternoon hours on Monday. The NAM (North American Model) has been consistent in bringing instability up towards the state going into Monday afternoon. Wind shear, which is wind direction and speed changing with height, will also be present, and will be high enough to support the development of thunderstorms. Temperatures will also be in the upper 60's to mid 70's, which will act as fuel for thunderstorms. Below is what the Storm Prediction Center is currently thinking on the severe risk.
Personally, I think there could be a risk upgrade somewhere from western Arkansas towards eastern Oklahoma on north to at least Missouri, but time will tell in that regard. The primary storm threat AT THIS TIME, looks to be damaging winds, though the tornado threat is non-zero. The tornado potential exists because one, there could be a line of storms along the cold front, and two, supercell thunderstorms could occur ahead of the line of storms Monday afternoon, as such, there is a conditional risk for supercells. If storms can get going in the afternoon hours, they could become supercells. This is why I would not be surprised to at least a slight risk upgrade in western Arkansas. Yes, I am talking about potentially the same scenario as last Tuesday, but NOTHING is set in stone yet, and this is just a warning blog. I promise I will keep you posted on the potential hazards. With all of this said, here are the confidence levels for Monday afternoon to night...
Potential for severe thunderstorms-low, possibly increasing
Timing: low, increasing
Threats: low, increasing
Threats could include, tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds, confidence for each...
Tornadoes: Very low
Damaging winds, low
Confidence in a risk upgrade somewhere in the marginal zone: Medium
The reason for my belief in a possible risk upgrade sometime from now to Monday is because SPC mentions that they are unsure about storm development. They also mention, like I have before, that the environment will be conditional for supercells. This, once again, means that if storms can get going, the environment is set for the thunderstorms to supercells. If storms look as if they will get going, SPC will likely include an upgraded risk zone. SPC is comfortable at a marginal risk area at this time and is currently observing the conditions until they feel comfortable about upgrading a part of this area to a slight risk if they deem it necessary. That is all for this blog, and when I receive more information I will be sure to post it here on the blog. Thanks for reading and have a good rest of the day!