Hey everyone! This is Cameron back here again and Here's a update on your Halloween Forecast!
Temperatures around Halloween look to be near/slightly above normal across the Natural State. At this time, there will be a storm system near the area so as a result, temperatures will be near the 70 degree mark with humidity/instability returning
Here is the GFS for Halloween at 6 PM. A cold front will be moving through the area. With limited instability/strong shear in place, severe weather would be limited but can not be ruled out.
Here's the Euro at the same time. The Euro has the instability further to the west as a result of ridging over our area. With this setup, we would see severe weather as we head towards next weekend vs Halloween.
As stated before, we will be dealing with strong mid/low level shear so Severe Weather can not be ruled out at this time but timing is still being worked out as we speak.
In terms of precip, the Euro is dry at the moment for Trick or Treaters! This would move in on Thursday (November 1st) instead of Halloween night.
Here is the GFS during the same timeframe, The GFS is wetter and faster and wants to bring the heaviest rainfall over our area on Halloween night with the potential of some severe weather.
Here is the CMC at the same timeframe and it also wants to bring heavy rainfall for Halloween night across The Natural State.
Timing is still being worked out between guidance for Halloween so I would go ahead and prepare for a rainy Halloween night across the Natural State. Severe Weather will be limited but the threat of damaging winds and even a few isolated spinups can not be ruled out especially if the instability were to rise.