FORECASTING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM ARKADELPHIA TO MARSHALL, AR EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS..
***THIS AREA HAS A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT DEVELOPMENT***
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A TORNADO POSSIBLE IF STORMS DEVELOP.
TIMING: 3 TO 9 PM FOR POSSIBLE STORM THREAT..MAY EXTEND INTO WESTERN MS TILL MIDNIGHT OR SO
COVERAGE: ISOLATED IF ANY
NOT EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE IT
LARGE HAIL: LOW RISK
TORNADOES: LOW RISK
DAMAGING WINDS: LOW RISK
There is morning showers and thunderstorms along/north of the warm-front with elevated activity and likely non-severe, however atmosphere is expected to recover.
The low-pressure system on Friday Morning is expected to be rather strong, however will weaken as it pushes east and this will be limiting factor for the event on Friday. Given the weakening low pressure the lift will decrease rather significantly for much of the day which poses a question on storm development on Friday in much of the state. It’s likely that the warm-front moving in the morning will have some elevated showers and perhaps a t-storm during the morning into the early afternoon moving across the region given the lift and moisture convergence.
Given moderate instability/CAPE values more than 1,000 joules (*which IS POTENTIAL fuel for storms*) Southeastern AR, Northern LA, Western MS combined with sufficient wind shear which should allow for a few strong thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the night-time hours, and many models are showing instability to remain through the early overnight hours. Given the weaker lift and forcing the severe weather threat will be hampered, however a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms between 3-9 PM TO POSSIBLY MIDNIGHT in a favorable environment.
Further West…The atmosphere will likely remain essentially capped on Friday with atmospheric conditions likely more stable, with westerly winds despite warm temps. Given the lower dew-points and the westerly winds…The dry-line is likely not to fire any development.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY:
Will be watching an upper level system, with a large closed low with rather strong surface low-pressure system to the west near the OK/KS/TX border pushing towards the state by Monday. There is timing uncertainties, but the overall setup is rather certain. The instability and frontal boundary placement is very uncertain. Given a weak boundary south of the area, however warm-air advection should supply some elevated instability atop the front. A conditional isolated severe weather threat can’t be ruled out in Southern AR during the late afternoon and early evening with large hail being the primary threat.
---The severe weather threat “could” ramp up in Eastern TX, Northern LA, Southern AR, and Western MS Sunday Night into Monday Morning given the strong forcing/dynamics. This threat likely to extend further east as well during the day Monday---