Then there is the system on Monday that some are talking about. This is a very minor system that could produce a few flurries. Once again, nothing signicant and only the EURO ensembles show any potential snow, very light at that with a moisture starved system. That being said, each run is coming back slightly wetter so we are watching for the potential to be more.
Then the next in a series of storms, Tuesday. In my opnion, this is to far north with the system. This is still 6 days out so it will change but the arctic high to the north will suppress the system to the south. With cold air already in place, this would be a light snow to moderate snow event. Once again GFS is only consistent model with this sceneraio and only fun to look at this far out.
Lastly, is the most significant storm of the week if it transpires. This storm would be the largest and most significant we would see. Everything would have to come together for this to happen being over a week out. Also, EURO weeklies want to warm us up well above normal while the GFS gives us a winter storm. Canadian once again is also dry.
These models past 5 days are a crapshoot, this year worse than usual. Normally you would have one or two honing in on a system, this year they are all over the place. Also normally, we would have a decent idea of the potential of winter storms in the medium to long range. This year, they flip flop with nearly each run. We have to look at a storm on one or the other showing up on the same day. Then theres the underestimating of the cold air, eventual track of the storm etc. etc. So many variables go into forecasting a normal winter. This year with the strong El Nino in the Pacifc, it is thowing a lot of forecasting tools off. There are defininte signs that this wintry weather could occur, giving the blocking upstream southern Canada, dislodging the cold air south. I do not buy the huge warmup that the EURO has as it has performed very poorly as of late.
As you can see, there are a lot of headaches in the coming week. There will be ALOT of changes to the forecasts, some multiple. Saturday is looking more likely. Beyond that is up in the air. We will focus on one at a time but still watch the extended. Don't give up on winter, its only January. We have a long way to go. I do feel that there will be snow in the next 7 days. Winter storm? I have my doubts but I am optimistic. We will continue to keep you up to date on the latest.
I will say this, I have had great success last 10 winters in forecasting winter storms, this year, is very hard but I am not giving up. I am sure we will see at least 3-4 snow events this winter, and at least 2 winter storms. Have a great night everyone and as always,
~Senior Forecaster Derek