STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
Too early to get into specifics, but a threat of damaging winds, hail, and an isolated tornado will be possible within the stronger storms. The magnitude of the threat will be better refined as we get closer, and depends on how the surface/upper level features evolve. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible if the slightly slower solutions pan out.
The weather pattern is expected to undergo changes with warming temps for this upcoming week, with humidity anticipated to increase by Thursday ahead of an organizing low pressure system to the west.
Have opted to go with a slightly slower solution closer to that of the more consistent European, while the GFS has changed it's speed and intensity several times regarding the system.
The European would indicate better instability, wind shear, moisture, and dynamics for the southern plains extending into Arkansas suggesting showers and thunderstorms to develop along/ahead of of a dry-line feature and cold front by Late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning across Arkansas.
The GFS is faster, and further north suggesting a line of showers and thunderstorms to move through the state Friday Afternoon and clear the state rapidly with a narrow line.
Given the model differences..There is uncertainty, but have opted to go with a blend and a nod towards the Euro solution suggesting a round of showers and thunderstorms to increase by Friday Evening and continue into possibly Saturday Morning...Starting possibly as early as mid-late afternoon. Refinements will are anticipated.
A severe weather threat along with locally heavy rainfall will be possible to some extent for at least some portion of Arkansas on Late Friday into Early Saturday depending on how everything sets up.