Hi everyone, this is Senior Forecaster Cameron back again going over the potential of winter weather for the state for late this week into next weekend.
Here's the GFS: The 00z GFS brings the moisture in Thursday afternoon into The Natural State. The snow starts in north Arkansas and pushes into Central and southeast Arkansas. The GFS is somewhat colder than the other models at this time. This system will be a merger of a clipper system and a surface low and this will cause enhanced lift and with cold air in place, this would lead to rain to snow for north/central Arkansas. At this time, rain would be the primary type for south AR but a transition would be possible.
Here's the FV3-GFS: The FV3-GFS is similar to the GFS, it also has the system and the clipper system but the surface low is further north than the original GFS resulting in mainly rain across the state except north AR.
Here's the EURO: The EURO has a classic Gulf Coast track with rain overspreading the state and a mix of rain/snow across north and central AR. The EURO is very warm bias so surface temperatures will be too marginal for any significant snow amounts however the EURO has been known in the past to overdo temperatures.
Here's the CMC: The CMC has the system tracking across north LA and has rain/snow overtaking the state. It has a good bit of snow for the northern half of AR due to the northern LA track. The last run of the CMC was completely dry so this is the first run that it has precip.
Here's our current overall thoughts for this system: Our overall current thoughts regarding this system is that the high pressure to the north will be supplying a good bit of cold air into the state. A surface low will develop across the northern gulf coast and a clipper system will drop down from the Rockies. With these two pieces of energy, this will lead to some winter precip across the natural state. IF it takes this track, dry air will be filtering into north AR. We are currently thinking that this will be central/south AR at this time. This will all depend on the track of the low and how far south/strong the fresh batch of cold air will be.