Last Week we talked about the pattern that brought us rainfall and cooler weather. This week I want to look ahead to the month of September. There are definitely a lot of us who want to get rid of summer 2016 and move on to the fall. As Meteorological summer draws to a close, it has been one of the warmest and one of the wettest on record. Patterns like these tend to take a time erode away and transiston to the next season. The next couple of days are a taste of what’s to come with the less humidity and cooler temps. I mentioned in a post that I don’t feel we will see many if any 90 degree temps. Well, September does try give us one last bout with summer. There are indications of both a summer like pattern or a fall like pattern. Data we use to look at the patterns of the atmosphere can change and we look at other factors such as steering currents and ocean temps. Below I will give you my thoughts on how the pattern will evolve for September.
So overall the forecast is challenging. There will be a lot of factors that can affect the overall pattern across the state. However, this is the best outlook I can give you as you plan your month ahead. This is our change month, and I see no reason why this year won’t be different if not more active than average. Any tropical threat will enhance this outlook and we will let you know if we see any threats coming. Our next article will be the much anticipated Fall and Winter Outlook on September 1st.
Derek Smith Founder/Senior Forecaster Arkansas Weather Watchers