Good evening everyone, this is Senior Forecaster Cameron and I'm going to be going over the potential of severe weather for not only Tuesday/Tuesday night but also Friday/Saturday. Please read below & share our blog with your family and friends so they can stay ahead of the storm.
Severe Weather Possible Tuesday Into Tuesday Night
Here's the GFS dew point values for Tuesday's event. As you can see, dew points will begin climbing as we progress into Tomorrow afternoon into Tomorrow evening especially across the southern half of the state out ahead of our very powerful upper level system with cold front/dry line along it.
Here's what I was mentioning before that this will be a very powerful system that will swing through our area. On a normal situation, given the system will be taking a negative tilted position and will have nearly 120-130 kt winds with it...It would normally result in severe weather. But given the uncertainties with moisture return, SPC has not issued a risk for severe weather at this time but I do foresee a Marginal/Slight given guidance has been indicating a good bit of moisture/instability return out ahead of this powerful jet. Main hazards will be Hail & wind but can't completely throw out the chance of a isolated spinup especially with the amount of shear we will be dealing with.
As seen with the High-Res NAM, a broken line of storms would move through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning if you were to side with this guidance. Main hazards, as mentioned, would be high winds & hail and possibly a isolated spinup or two.
Possible Severe Weather Threat Friday-Sunday
As stated at the top, A secondary severe threat could materialize as we move towards the later part of your holiday workweek and into your weekend. The same front that will move through Tuesday/Tuesday night will look to return northward as a warm front Thursday night/Friday morning with instability & moisture returning to the area.
Here' s the GFS starting at late Thursday night and ending Sunday morning. As you can see, this is the 500 MB jet moving overhead as we progress throughout Friday/Saturday. What concerns me the most is unlike the setup for Tuesday/Wednesday. The majority of the dynamics looks to be much closer to Arkansas. As a result, it appears that we would see a much greater moisture/instability return which could lead to strong/severe thunderstorms especially for our viewers in the southern half of the state on Saturday.
This is the dewpoints from the GFS. As you can see, the moisture/instability begins to surge northward in response of the powerful system Friday morning and throughout the day on Saturday. Given the lift, instability, moisture and shear in place...The potential is there for strong/severe thunderstorms. Main hazards that i'm concerned with would be damaging winds, hail and the potential of tornadoes given the instability, the placement of the warm front/dryline and the overwhelming amount of shear in place in the atmosphere. The SPC has noted this chance and has mentioned the possibility of issuing a risk for Friday/Saturday for the southern plains if current trends were to continue. Overall, please stay tuned to us throughout this week as we will have blogs, SPC outlooks (if issued) and all the up to date coverage on both of these threats.
Good evening everyone, this is the written portion of the live video blog on our website! Firstly before we talk winter wx chances, let's talk about the cold air as regardless of if we see snow or not, will more than likely be a news maker over the next 6-10 days.
Here's the latest from the CPC...A near 100% shot of below normal temperatures across the central & eastern half of the country which includes us here in the natural state. Our first shot of cold air will be tomorrow night into Friday with a much bigger shot of cold air coming for early next week with temperatures struggling to get out of the 30s for highs.
Here's the EURO, CMC & GFS for Tuesday and you can clearly see that the cold air has a massive grip over our weather as we kick off your next workweek.
In terms of winter precip wise, the setup will be that the arctic front will push through on Monday. A impulse will dive down from the Rockies at the same time and form a weak low in the northwest GOM (Gulf Of Mexico). This will mean moisture being thrown into the natural state *highly favoring Central & South AR* The true question remains is the cold air timing. If the cold air makes it in time before the storm system then we could see a decent winter weather event here in the natural state as we move into Monday night with VERY cold temperatures settling in. If the cold air is slightly delayed or the system is much faster than the cold air, then it will likely result in a cold rain with no winter precip occurring at all.
Here's the Euro for that timeframe.
Here's the GFS for that timeframe.
Here's the CMC for that timeframe.
Overall, the chances of winter precip lies on the surface low in the gulf & timing wise. The big story, as mentioned before, will be the unseasonably cold air for your next workweek.
~Senior Forecaster Cameron