Hey everyone! This is Cameron back here again and Here's a update on your Halloween Forecast!
Temperatures around Halloween look to be near/slightly above normal across the Natural State. At this time, there will be a storm system near the area so as a result, temperatures will be near the 70 degree mark with humidity/instability returning
Here is the GFS for Halloween at 6 PM. A cold front will be moving through the area. With limited instability/strong shear in place, severe weather would be limited but can not be ruled out.
Here's the Euro at the same time. The Euro has the instability further to the west as a result of ridging over our area. With this setup, we would see severe weather as we head towards next weekend vs Halloween.
As stated before, we will be dealing with strong mid/low level shear so Severe Weather can not be ruled out at this time but timing is still being worked out as we speak.
In terms of precip, the Euro is dry at the moment for Trick or Treaters! This would move in on Thursday (November 1st) instead of Halloween night.
Here is the GFS during the same timeframe, The GFS is wetter and faster and wants to bring the heaviest rainfall over our area on Halloween night with the potential of some severe weather.
Here is the CMC at the same timeframe and it also wants to bring heavy rainfall for Halloween night across The Natural State.
Overall Picture for Halloween
Timing is still being worked out between guidance for Halloween so I would go ahead and prepare for a rainy Halloween night across the Natural State. Severe Weather will be limited but the threat of damaging winds and even a few isolated spinups can not be ruled out especially if the instability were to rise.
There are many curious minds out there wondering if our nice fall air is going to last all the way into Halloween night. Guidance models are just now coming into range for Halloween and are offering a little insight as to what we may see. As of the writing of this, warm and wet looks very possible. Not bad, but one of those dreary Halloween nights. The CPC does keep the below average temps going into Halloween, but some guidance wants to say otherwise Let’s take a look.
Let’s compare the two most consistent forecast models the GFS AND EUROPEAN in regard to the temperatures on Halloween. One small thing is that the Euro only goes out to Halloween morning while the GFS goes into the evening. If the Euro in the morning (12Z is 7am) is any indication, the GFS is onto something. Pictured below is the high of the previous 6 hours. 60s in the morning on the EURO and upper to mid 70s on the GFS. Looking at the setup, we will be within a semi tropical airmass as well, meaning mild but a tad more humidity, so these temps do in fact look close to the idea of the latest thinking regarding not needing a jacket Halloween night.
One exception though is the CMC. This is always the colder of the models and usually the outlier. This has 40s in the morning on Halloween day. Therefore, this is the outlier, it is complete opposite of the other two. But it is interesting to note it does keep the warmer air further south. Looking at this model, warmer air is delayed. So it could be slightly cooler on this one than the other two, and much cooler in the morning. Given that this is the only one, seems a bit unlikely.
So, taking a blend of these 3, 2 being morning, it is safe to say that we will see a warm but not hot Halloween. As of tonight, upper 60s to mid-70s look reasonable for Halloween evening just looking at the current setup.
But Derek, will my child need a poncho. That is a good question and not a bad idea. Once again, a very unique setup will be overhead. A rich moisture feed from southwest flow aloft will be overhead. Remnants of the hurricane in the Pacific will be long gone to our east, but the moisture feed should remain. Guidance is honing in on a disturbance moving through the region on or around Halloween. Lets take a look below.
The GFS and the CMC both have a somewhat potent disturbance moving through the region with copious amounts of moisture. Remember, GFS is evening while the CMC is morning. But you get the picture. Looking at these two, rainfall overspreads the state during the day. The EURO on the other hand, is not as robust on the moisture with only a few scatttered showers seen, typical of a warmer air mass, clouds and showers around. But one thing to note, is that all 3 do have some sort of system with increasing moisture around the state on Halloween. With that being said, rainfall is looking like more of a possibility on Halloween at least in some portions of the state.
Severe weather threat does look low, however with the temperature swings, this always needs to be watched. The Euro does have an interesting setup, but this is the only one showing this at this time, so it will be discounted but will be watched closely.
One thing to keep in mind in all of this is that it is 10 days out. In the temperature department, the CPC keeps things below average even into the extended as you can see below. That does not mean you can not have one day above average during that time frame, it means that period as a whole will average below average. Our high temps are pushing the upper 60s to near 70s for averages now so if the highs on Halloween pan out, an above average day would be in store. Things are subject to change given the timing, but the consistency is worth noting for certain. Things most likely will change this far out, but the overall pattern does favor this setup of a mild and wet Halloween. The supposed system could speed up, slow down, or even disappear which of course no one would complain of a dry Halloween. So as of tonight, plan for a little trickery from mother nature with mild and wet and keep watch for future outlooks as we get closer, because After all it is Arkansas and we still could see a treat.
Hi Everyone! It's Long Range/Senior Forecaster Cameron back again bringing you guys a blog going over the temperature change for the next couple of weeks across the Natural State.
Here's the latest 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. Look for well below normal temperatures for much of the central, southern and eastern half of the US as cold air pours down from Canada
Here's the latest 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. Look for Below normal temperatures to continue across the central and eastern half of the US as EL Nino Modoki begins to build in.
As we push towards next week, Parts of north Arkansas could see their first frost/freeze of the season as the third reinforcing shot of colder air settles in across the natural state! Round 1 (Yesterday-Friday), Round 2 (Sunday-Wednesday), Round 3 (Next Wednesday-Next Weekend) This is the GFS from Weatherbell.com
Here's the model that we like to use for dealing with Canadian Airmasses, The CMC. This is for next Tuesday morning. Forecast lows are in the 20s?!?!?! I do believe that they may be overdone but the plains will see some snow this upcoming weekend so these temperatures are very possible!