The next most important parameter to discuss will be the cap, the cap is the boss, if there is a strong cap, (the following is an EXAMPLE) then we could have the parameters set up to that of an outbreak, but if there is a strong enough cap, the outbreak wouldn't happen. That's what you would call a "Conditional threat", if things can get going and the parameter(s) prohibiting storm development weaken, then storms will have serious potential to be damaging. I am IN NO WAY saying this will be an outbreak. That was just an EXAMPLE. The cap is the leader in many situations...going back into the parameter discussion, there will be a cap for most of the day Saturday, but that cap is projected to weaken in time for storms to use the ripe atmosphere.
Next parameter, Storm Relative Helicity, this is one of the factors that can determine the threat for tornadoes, numbers that are generally 175 or lower, can lead to an isolated tornado threat.
Moving on, the next parameter I am going to talk about is the Supercell composite, this parameter combines a few parameters, like instability, shear, storm relative helicity, etc. to make a parameter that will show how favorable conditions are for supercells...numbers over 5 are usually supportive of supercellular development, but there will be widespread 10-30...that needs to be watched closely. All of this will continue to be watched until the day of, you will be notified of any changes when we feel the time is appropriate for another update. Here is the picture for supercell composite.
A high pressure system in the southeast will dominate, and the clockwise flow around the high pressure system will support increased moisture transport into the state for the weekend. All eyes turn to the west where a developing short-wave and associated jet-streak dynamics push towards the state. While there is uncertainty on how strong and the exact timing..The high moisture and associated instability along with this lift and stationary boundary in the north of the half of the state will support a possible conveyor belt of showers and thunderstorms in much of the state including adjacent parts of Eastern TX/Eastern OK/Southern MO/Western TN. The increasing low-level jet during the evening could act to enhance instability/shear and the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall across the area. There is uncertainty on the specifics, but confidence is high in the overall setup.
Thank you guys for reading and we will update you to the newest information.
~Created by Severe Weather Forecasters Michael Modica and Kevin Conant