Okay, I promised you guys a blog, so here goes. This blog will concern Wednesday, but I will begin a day in advance. Beginning Tuesday, we will begin to be on a warming trend, this will help set the stage for Wednesday. At this time, it appears that a cap may be in place for a little while Wednesday, and then begin eroding in the afternoon. There are still some uncertainties in timing and strength of the storms, but I will say that models have lead to an afternoon/evening event. There is ALSO uncertainty in how isolated the storms will be Wednesday afternoon. The storms may have a difficult time keeping away from each other when/if they develop Wednesday afternoon. I will quickly note: this will not be an oversized blog due to uncertainties, but there will likely be a big one Tuesday, given how it looks like Wednesday may unfold. Back to what I was originally saying, as it stands, model guidance has pointed to the POSSIBILITY of a few supercells ahead of a line of storms Wednesday. If these storms were to remain discrete, they would have the best potential for a tornado. Currently hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats, but if storms can develop by themselves and tap into the rich atmosphere that we will likely have on Wednesday, they will have a heightened risk for tornadoes. WITH THIS SAID, it does NOT guarantee that there will be a tornado at ALL on Wednesday, but just that if storms develop under the right conditions, there could be one or two storms that could become tornadic. Now, shifting to the LINE of thunderstorms, this line will have tornado potential too, simply because it likes to remain broken. This line will likely remain broken until the eastern portions of the state per latest model guidance. I will not include timing on the individual events such as the potential for supercells and the line of storms as there is still uncertainty regarding the timing, but given that current indications are showing a broken line, that could become concerning because of the potential for tornadoes along that line, let alone the risk for damaging winds and large hail. Overall, at this time, the large hail and damaging wind is threats are primary across the state, and tornadoes will only remain a secondary threat at this time. It is all something to watch even at this point. We will have a MUCH better idea going into tomorrow as the storm system will actually get sampled by weather balloons when it comes on shore over the west. Graphics will not be included in this update either, holding off for tomorrow where a graphic with more certainty behind it will be put out. This blog was to cover the idea of everything as it stands at this point. There will likely either be a new blog or a new video put out tomorrow covering the new data. Thank you guys for reading, and have a nice night!
Good afternoon, main focus in this blog will be the threats for tomorrow as well as timing. Today, the risk level jumped from very low, to medium, which is a really good jump. This is why I said yesterday that I was gonna save talking about Friday's event for today. Unexpected changes like that can occur, especially if the weather conditions change how they did to cause this new risk area. The Storm Prediction Center has raised us from a very low risk to a Medium risk for severe weather. When you get to Medium, you need to begin paying more attention than with a low or very low threat. This threat mainly favors the western portion of the state. The farther east you go past Conway county, the threat begins to lower.
At this point in time, the current guidance shows that this may be a late afternoon/evening event. I will discuss threats shortly, but model guidance points at some potentially isolated development. The best chance of that happening would be in the western part of the state in that Medium risk zone. Some storms, if they do develop, may carry over into the western portions of the Low risk zone. After the isolated cells get over with, given that it happens, a large area of thunderstorms, with some embedded severe storms was also hinted at by the models. Keep in mind that there is still room for change and the risk areas may be adjusted or even removed. But even then, storms can certainly still become severe. Now, onto what everyone's been waiting for, the threats. As it stands right now, the main threats for ALL of these risk zones are hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat may be on the lower side but it certainly can't be discounted, and can raise throughout the day tomorrow. The tornado threat can't really be officially determined until the day of so I will leave a mark by the tornado threat level below. This mark (?) will simply mean it can not be determined as well as it will be on day one so the threat level, like everything else, will be preliminary. Though the winds and large hail can be easier to determine just outside of the day one range.
Medium Severe Risk:
Large Hail: Medium
Damaging winds: Medium
Low Risk Level:
Large Hail: Low
Damaging Winds: Low
Tornadoes: Very Low(?)
Very Low Risk:
Large Hail: Very low
Damaging Winds: Very low
Tornadoes: Very low
I will also add to, that the severe threat will be conditional. So if storms can get going, and tap into that unstable atmosphere, they could become severe and drop some large hail, produce damaging winds, and maybe an isolated tornado. This is especially true in the Medium risk area. This will also depend on if there is enough heating in the atmosphere. This will most likely occur in the medium risk zone. Last reminder, there can still be changes in where these risk areas are located, a risk area can also be added or removed. We will see what happens tomorrow and I will update you guys. Thanks for reading and have a good evening!
This will be another short blog regarding tomorrows severe threat. I will not mention Fridays severe potential as it still needs watching.
This blog will go over some details regarding tomorrows severe threat. As things stand, there is currently a very low risk for severe weather. Currently, model guidance shows a dying line of strong thunderstorms over Kansas, these will continue to die as they move off to the southeast per the latest NAM 3 km model. The NAM shows redevelopment across the very low risk area, which is mainly for northern half of Arkansas at this time, the main threats with ANY of these storms will be damaging winds and large hail IF any storm are able to become severe.
Ignore the wording from the Storm Prediction Center as I am simply using this map for location purposes. Counties are still glitched for me guys, I'm sorry, but the northern half of the state is certainly the favored part of the state for severe weather IF any were to occur, as I have said before this is a very low risk. The higher chances for slightly more concentrated severe thunderstorms will be over the Great Lakes region and the southern plains. This can certainly still change, but right now this is where we are at. This could be expanded south, raised north, or even taken out of Arkansas, this will need watching even up to day one as things can change with one update. Overall, the primary threats and threat levels are supplied below.
Large hail: Very low
Damaging Winds: Very low
Possible secondary threats:
Tornadoes: Extremely low
These threats will continue to be evaluated over the course of the day tomorrow for any changes.
We will keep you guys posted and I will likely have a blog for Friday tomorrow. Thank you guys for reading and have a good rest of the night!
This will just be a small blog in regards to tomorrow's severe weather potential. It goes from the Ouachita Mountains northeastward up towards Mountain Home on into Missouri. The threat level is very low, and at this time, only isolated damaging winds and isolated hail events are expected with any storm(s) that can get going. Main threat tomorrow is heavy rainfall across mainly the SW portion of the state. A lot of this aforementioned activity may wait until morning for some, and afternoon to evening for others, it will depend on where you live, but best chance for severe weather, which once again is very low, will be from SW to N. Central Arkansas. A map has been provided to go over more details. With that said, let's go over some threats shall we? These will look good for some, and bad for others.
Overall Threat: Very low
Tornadoes: Extremely low
Large hail: Very low
Damaging Winds: Very Low
All the threats mentioned will be isolated at best.
Outbreak Potential: Not expected
Below is the map that will provide additional details including the potential severe area, keep in mind that severe weather can happen near this risk area to, it does not have to be inside for severe thunderstorms to initiate, it just depends on the atmosphere it is surrounded by.
Thanks for reading and have a good day Monday!