Hi everyone, This is your senior forecaster Cameron here and I will be going over what can we expect for this upcoming spring across the natural state.
Firstly, Let's talk about the well above normal Gulf of Mexico. Normally after a very cold winter, the gulf is running in the 50s and 60s and is waiting for spring to come to heat back up again, and although we've had our fair share of arctic outbreaks this year here in the natural state, those fronts have washed out before they could make it into the gulf this winter. As a result, the gulf never managed to cool down and as of March 1st, the gulf is in the 70s and 80s and Let me remind you, this is pre-spring. The gulf is now in the warming up period vs the cooling down period.
*Graphic Credit Goes To myfoxhurricane.com*
Now, you may ask how will a above normal Gulf impact our spring here in the natural state? Typically in years that the gulf has been near/below normal in the temp department, this has led to a quieter spring over our area as the energy needed for tornadoes would be very limited. However with the Gulf being 10-20 degrees above normal, the gulf, at this time, has a ton of energy just waiting to be tapped into. And as you can see on the graphic, in years that the gulf has been above normal, we've had more tornadoes/severe weather events happen here in the state and in the southern plains.
With EL Nino being here, that typically means that the pattern will slow down during the spring/summer months as blocking begins to setup. That could also mean some bad news in terms of severe weather as storm systems will not be as progressive like last year when we were dealing with La Nina. And that could also mean a cooler summer but we'll cross that bridge on June 1st, 2019 ;)
So what is Arkansas Weather Watchers expecting for this upcoming spring in terms of precip and temps? Check it out below
Here's what we're expecting in terms of precip across the area. Severe weather season will be near/above normal across our area as the warm gulf and the storm jet will aid in the potential of several severe weather events here in the state and in the southern plains. Further north, We are expecting near normal precip as the warm air from the gulf will modify big time over the snowpack in the area. The jet will set up across the western half of the US so we are expecting winter to continue out there especially early before the seasonal heat ridge begins to build. With the southeast ridge in control, this will lead to above normal precip across the southeast.
Here's what we're expecting in terms of temperatures across the area. With the southeast ridge in place, this will lead to above normal temperatures across our area and the eastern half of the US. Across the western half of the US, With the jet in place, this will lead to below normal temperatures across the area and With the PNA being near neutral, ridging make take place across the far western half of the US.
Thank you for reading the spring outlook and be ready for any changing weather this spring and share this page with your family and friends to keep them updated!