SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE PERIODICALLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR MID-SOUTH, ARKLATEX, ARKLAMISS REGION.
A SLIGHT RISK: A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, HOWEVER THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
A MARGINAL RISK: MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
A strong upper level system is forecasted to be near the Kansas and Oklahoma border on Sunday Afternoon, and this will generate strong upper level winds aloft across the mid-south. The question mark remains is how far north the warm-front and associated instability advances. The warm-front is most likely is forecasted to be near or just north of Texarkana to near Camden extending east.
The warm-frontal placement will be dependent morning rain or thunderstorms, which is becoming less likely based on the new data due to dry air from the back-door front that moved through the area on Saturday. Since there will be plenty of moisture to the south of the warm-front and strong southwest winds, the dry air is likely to be mixed out and that is why we are thinking temperatures may be warmer than forecasted currently, and along with higher moisture values.
A small piece of energy is forecasted to develop possible rain/thunderstorms, and some of these could end up becoming strong to severe supporting an isolated severe risk with large hail the primary threat given the elevated instability. Given the strengthening storm system in Kansas and Oklahoma, the low level shear will be steadily increasing as we move into the late afternoon into the evening hours. Given this, a tornado or two can not be discounted at this time with any supercells that materialize tomorrow afternoon/evening hours in Southwest Arkansas and Northeastern Texas.
The threat may extend into the overnight hours as the storm system bottoms out and pushes eastward into South Kansas, South Missouri and into the boothill of Missouri. A few isolated severe thunderstorms are possible with the main vort max.
SPRINGTIME IN ARKANSAS
Blooming meadows, babbling brooks, croaking frogs and severe weather. As we transition from mukluks to flip-flops, the tranquility of Spring beauty is often shattered by periods of Mother Nature’s wrath. The Arkansas Weather Watchers Storm Team is resolute to provide citizens of Arkansas accurate and timely information as storms develop.
We at Arkansas Weather Watchers endeavor to answer your questions in a timely and accurate manner. However, during severe weather events, we receive thousands of questions. During those times it is impossible to reply to each individual question. There are times we must choose the most relevant questions to answer, primarily questions related to areas under the greatest risk, where lives and property are in immediate jeopardy. Prior to and during each severe event, we will post maps and radar frequently outlining the areas of volatile, life threatening weather to assist your severe weather protocol.
* Do not wait for someone to tell you to seek shelter! Deadly weather can erupt without warning! Stay vigilant to your local weather conditions. If the weather makes you feel threatened, seek shelter immediately! Remember, ACT first, ASK later. It could save your life.
* Seek shelter in a basement, storm cellar or an interior room on the lowest floor of your home. Have as many walls as possible between you and the weather. Stay well away from exterior windows and doors.
* If in a mobile home, choose a safe place in a nearby sturdy building. If your mobile home park has a designated shelter, make it your safe place. A mobile is NEVER a safe place to shelter from high winds or a tornado.
* Most public buildings have designated storm safe areas. Follow instructions provided by property officials.
A tornado WATCH means tornado and severe weather is possible. Stay alert to conditions and monitor your local news outlets and Arkansas Weather Watchers for additional information as conditions warrant.
A tornado WARNING means a tornado is occurring or will occur soon. TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION! GO TO YOUR SAFE PLACE IMMEDIATELY!
A severe thunderstorm WATCH means severe thunderstorms are possible. Stay alert to conditions and monitor your local news outlets and Arkansas Weather Watchers for additional information as conditions warrant.
A severe thunderstorm WARNING means a severe thunderstorm is occurring or will occur soon. TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION! High winds, large hail, blinding rain can be expected. Remember, severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes, rapidly and without warning. PREPARE TO SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY