Lets start with Monday. Below is the GFS and NAM precip outlook for tomorrow evening. As you can see a lot has changed. Originally this has widespread rainfall, with a lot of severe weather and flooding potential. Both maps now represent what the radar COULD look like Monday evening as a cold front comes through. This front will be more of Pacific orgin vs Arctic so only slightly cooler air will follow it. Both the GFS and NAM do indicate at least a chance of thunderstorms. This is where the highest rain rates would come from. Most of the data I have seen generally has us about an inch by noon Tuesday with locally higher amounts. That is to be expected. With the low pressure in Missouri, we will be in the warm sector so severe weather could become an issue. Given the lack of instability with substantial cloud cover, only a marginal risk has been issued for us from the Storm Prediction Center. Even the atmospheric soundings show a very low chance for severe weather, mainly in the form of large hail or damaging winds. Tornado threat is very low. This will mainly be a rain producer with some thunderstorms as it moves across. Data has also delayed the timing to later in the day on Monday, however with the warm front surging north tonight, there could be some rainfall along it to, along with more fog.
Rainfall forecasts from the Weather Prediction Center over the next 7 days indicate generally 1 to 3 inches of rain. Last week, this map had us getting 4 to 6 so it has changed substantially, with the storm system affecting us not as strong as originally thought, well at least here. The GFS and NAM also have similar forecasts with rainfall amounts. Monday into Tuesday Thursday into Friday and next Sunday look to be the wettest days this week, with the beginning and ending seeing more widespread rainfall.
So overall a very active week in Arkansas weather ahead. If it were cold, we could be seeing more ice than snow given the pattern in the upper atmosphere is rather warm. Between you and me, id rather have rain if its going to be warm above us. Lets save the cold air for snow. This rainfall could lead to areas of localized flooding if we see higher amounts in thunderstorms, given dormant vegation. Right now, the flood risk does look low but this will need to be watched as any stall in the front could lead to that issue, something very hard to forecast in advance. This will be a mild week overall, with somewhat cooler nights at times. We should remain above freezing all week long. There will be limited sunshine, but Wednesday and Saturday look like good days for that. This warm pattern will come to an end as signs are already pointing towards a colder pattern to end January. That will be discussed once I get moved into our new house after next weekend. So enjoy the continued thaw, because it looks like that could be coming to an end soon. Enjoy this latest version of Arkansas weather.
~Senior forecaster Derek
Once my wife and I get settled into our new house, I will start doing both weekly and monthly outlooks. It will take time to get things resettled. My first one will be about the upcoming pattern change going into February that should come out towards the end of the month.
Maps courtesy of Pivotalweather.com Weather Prediction Center and the Storm Prediction Center