2/25/16: Results as of today:
Harrison 3.5" Jonesboro: 0.5" Little Rock: 6" Texarkana 0" Lake Village 0" Total snow as of today 10"
Numbers based off of total snow thus far, average temps and lowest temps wont be added in until March 31st.
Places as of 1/28/16:
1. JULIE RICHARDS
2. ERICA STARKS
2. PHILLIP COTTINGHAM
3. JENNIFER PIERCE
4. CHRIS POPLIN
5. STEVE ROBERTS
Contest runs through March 25th.
1/7/16: ENTRIES AS FOLLOWS, PRICE IS RIGHT RULES, CLOSEST WINS.
Name: Total snow Avg Temp. Tie Breaker
Erica Starks 13 42 0
Phillip Cottingham 13 55 18
Chris Poplin 20 56 13
Steve Roberts 23 36.6 5
Josie Trivitt 84 29 7
Jennifer Pierce 18 58 11
Julie Richards 10 20 1
AriCka Marsh 55 18.5 14
Ceci McFee 38 38 8
Cate Barnett 38 42 9
Stephanie Clayborn 25 35 18
WINTER WEATHER CONTEST 2015-2016 IS HERE:
First off let me say thank you for making us who we are today! We do what we do because of you!!! This is our way of giving back and saying thank you!!
Here are the rules:
You have to pick a total snow amount and average high temp for the winter for these 5 cities from Dec 25th through March 25th. Those 5 towns are Harrison, Jonesboro, Little Rock, Texarkana and Lake Village. For example: say the amouts are 14, 20,10, 5, 5 on snow y...our total would be 54 inches. On temps it would be, 30 40 50 40 20 you would take these numbers and divide them by 5 to get an average high, so your answer would be 38. Tie breaker will the lowest temperature for the season in Fayetteville.
Prizes are as follows:
3rd Place: $25 visa gift card
2nd Place: $50 visa gift card
1st Place: Accurite wireles weather station $125 value.
Send your numbers to our page email firstname.lastname@example.org or to the page inbox. Answers in comment section wont be accepted. This closes at 6am January 3rd
~Derek Founder/senior forecaster
~Cameron Asst. Senior Forecaster
~Jason Severe weather analyst
The weather around here has definitely become active as we thought it would going into late January. Along with the active jet has come cold. You know what cold and active means in Arkansas. We had a good snow in some locations today in North and parts of Central Arkansas. Some locations got up to an inch. I will be updating the winter weather contest later tonight. We have 2 more shots of winter weather this week. Tuesday night into early Wednesday and then again Thursday into Friday. One thing I have learned over the years with these Arctic airmasses is they are hard to erode and a lot of data tends to not see it in advance. This is what we call a "nowcast" situation, like today was for example.
First I want to focus on Tuesday into Wednesday. This looks to be mostly a north Arkansas event. That being said, this afternoon data has come in colder and now brings a light winter mix to central and north Tuesday afternoon and night into Wednesday morning. Also It keeps North Arkansas below freezing for the duration. This would lead to higher totals of snow and ice. This wont be a big deal at all but we could see some 1 inch totals of snow/sleet and 1/8 to 1/4 inch of ice depending how long the cold air is in place and how much precip falls. This is the lighter of the two events. Below is the Nam for Tuesday night and the GFS around the same time. DONT TAKE THIS AS A FORECAST ONLY ONE DATA RUN. This has been very consistent last few days. One thing they are having trouble with is the timing of the cold air, which is to be expected. My best guess is areas from Ft Smith to Conway to Memphis and points north will see a winter mix at the onset, with areas from Fayetteville to Clinton to Jonesboro staying mostly frozen precip through the event. But you can see the disagreement among the models, hence why this could end up being a "nowcast" event.
Next storm system will be on Thursday into Friday AM. This is one very tricky system as the track will be the key to everything. One thing is certain, it will rain. Not a flooding rain, but a good rain. There could be some thunderstorms in South Arkansas and north Louisiana as well. There is a track that most data has agreed on. Dallas to Jackson to Knoxville. This track is crucial!! This would bring rain changing to snow over most of Central and North Arkansas. This would also allow a northeast wind to blow. This is where we get our snow. Northeast winds allow the cold air to come around the mountains. This allows temps to drop faster. This is why I really like the setup for this system. This track would bring good accumulating snows to Central and North Arkansas. You folks in North Arkansas have a real good shot of being mostly snow. I do think data is under estimating the cold air at the surface. This is a setup however where you can get snow at 35 degrees and it accumulate fast. First lets look at the GFS. Below is the 18z run. These runs have not really altered much last 48 hours. Maybe 50 miles or so but have been consistent. The 3 pictures are Thursday afternoon, Thursday night and Friday morning. You can see the transition is fairly quick over north Arkansas, and it transitions into Central Arkansas by Thursday evening into Friday morning. The GFS also gives us several hours of snowfall. This would be a wet snow.
The EURO which is not updated with the latest run has a similar track but with much less snow and keeps best chance north. The rest of the EURO runs keep it on the GFS track. I think the 12z data runs had a fault today. EURO and its ensembles keep us in the snow similar to the GFS give or take 50 miles. The CMC however is much different. This is why you can not take one data run and make it a forecast. Below is the 18z Canadian model for the same timeframes as above. This offers a different solution. This keeps mostly rain for the state with a quick transition in far north and northeast Arkansas. I do not buy this I think it is to far north compared to the GFS, NAM, EURO, and the ensembles. All in all CMC has the right idea about the low, but it tends to catch on closer to the event. Time will tell for sure on this setup.
Last thing to show you is how different the 2 solutions are on the accumulations. Again this IS NOT A FORECAST but only a data run. The GFS, the most consistent along with the EURO, paints a nice swath of 3-6 inch snows in Central to Northeast Arkansas. The GFS has been showing this for quite some time. EURO earlier today was not as juicy but still had a large swath of 1-3 inches. The CMC however, says not much at all, as you would expect. The CMC is the last to catch on to cold air generally. The one thing I do see with accumulation map is the consistent track that the other data has. This is why I believe in the southern track of this storm.
So all in all, a very active winter pattern is starting finally! We hit this on the head on our winter outlook which you can see in the archives section. This forecast is far from nailed down right now. There is still a lot of variables at stake. That arctic high in the plains will play the ultimate role in what we get. If that high is further south, then the low goes south. If its north then all bets are off. The best potential I can give you at this time is this, there will be snow in at least the northern half of the state. I do feel we see at least an inch into central Arkansas with 2-4 up north. My gut tells me it will be more but I am being conservative for now until I see more data, forecast soundings and the track of the low on satellite. So many things can affect this system. I have only missed 3 snowfall forecasts in 10 years so I hope to keep that streak going when the eventual forecast is given for Thursday. Timing will tell when or who sees snowfall this week. Track will tell who sees rain snow or severe storms. Stay tuned as this is an ever changing forecast, and be prepared for the "now cast" situation.
This is my thinking as of right now and not a forecast as of yet. We will have a detailed forecast once we get a better handle on the situation. Long days and nights ahead for us at Arkansas Weather Watchers but we love what we do.
NORTH: WINTRY MIX LATE TUES PM SNOW/SLEET FAR NORTH ARKANSAS
CENTRAL: RAIN/SLEET TO RAIN
NORTH: AM RAIN PM SNOW A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
CENTRAL: RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, AT LEAST AN INCH POSSIBLE
SOUTH: RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM DEQUEEN TO CAMDEN TO HELENA
Stay tuned as this is subject to change. Remember this is just my thinking and not an official forecast yet. Have a great night and God Bless.
~Senior Forecaster Derek