Late in the week…The models are in generally good agreement that increasing moisture and some instability will be on the increase ahead of the next upper level system and cold front. There is considerable timing differences and differences in strength and track of the low-pressure system, therefore the predictability is rather low regarding the details.
It seems reasonable that showers and at least scattered thunderstorms will spread from the southwest into parts of Arkansas late during the week *Friday*, and then as the cold front pushes south the atmosphere will become stable with conditions drying out for next weekend. It is still too early to discern the potential of stronger storms at this range, but given we are in peak storm season it bares watching.
The outdoor event for next weekend currently looks fine, however it is 6-7 days out and things can change regarding the timing of the frontal boundary and etc.