A SLIGHT RISK: A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, HOWEVER THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
A MARGINAL RISK: MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
A strong upper level system is forecasted to be near the Kansas and Oklahoma border on Sunday Afternoon, and this will generate strong upper level winds aloft across the mid-south. The question mark remains is how far north the warm-front and associated instability advances. The warm-front is most likely is forecasted to be near or just north of Texarkana to near Camden extending east.
The warm-frontal placement will be dependent morning rain or thunderstorms, which is becoming less likely based on the new data due to dry air from the back-door front that moved through the area on Saturday. Since there will be plenty of moisture to the south of the warm-front and strong southwest winds, the dry air is likely to be mixed out and that is why we are thinking temperatures may be warmer than forecasted currently, and along with higher moisture values.
A small piece of energy is forecasted to develop possible rain/thunderstorms, and some of these could end up becoming strong to severe supporting an isolated severe risk with large hail the primary threat given the elevated instability. Given the strengthening storm system in Kansas and Oklahoma, the low level shear will be steadily increasing as we move into the late afternoon into the evening hours. Given this, a tornado or two can not be discounted at this time with any supercells that materialize tomorrow afternoon/evening hours in Southwest Arkansas and Northeastern Texas.
The threat may extend into the overnight hours as the storm system bottoms out and pushes eastward into South Kansas, South Missouri and into the boothill of Missouri. A few isolated severe thunderstorms are possible with the main vort max.