After a long lull in severe weather, we are finally seeing the potential for some severe weather, at this time, it looks like Saturday-Saturday night is the main time frame for any potential severe weather. Before I go into some detail, we are still a few days away with a lot of data to refine into one solution. Even then, when we get to day 1, the final solution that we give y'all likely won't be head on due to the kind of set-up this system may/will provide. Along with this, we are heading into the peak for the "secondary severe weather season", which in my personal opinion, the secondary season runs best from late September to early December in the "good" years of severe weather. This will be our first threat in a while, but nevertheless, will address it as any other potential severe threat. At present, it appears that portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas have the best potential during the day Saturday, then, overnight, eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas, except far east, Saturday evening into Saturday night. Reason I take off eastern Arkansas, is because right now, data suggests that the ingredients will be of lesser concentration across that area. Nevertheless, the ingredients do not look TOO superior over the entire state, but the GFS (American Model) and ECMWF (European Model) have been trending more aggressive with the concentration and the level of available ingredients in the atmosphere. This would mean that storms would be more robust given the ingredients all came together at the same time. Remember, we are still several days away, so data WILL change. With that said, at THIS POINT in time, it looks like areas in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas will have the better potential. Graphics will be attached to the bottom to represent this. Last reminder, THIS ALL WILL CHANGE WITH TIME! I will also not be mentioning any specifics as there is still well more than enough time to refine those, and they usually aren't refined best until 24-48 hrs before the event. *Specifics like, what threats could there be or what's the main threat*
In the Orange area the severe potential is in the evening-overnight. In the green area, the potential is toward the morning hours on Sunday.
That's it for this blog, as always, check back for updates as there will be other blogs needed for changes. Thank you guys for reading and have a good rest of the day!
~Michael
That's it for this blog, as always, check back for updates as there will be other blogs needed for changes. Thank you guys for reading and have a good rest of the day!
~Michael
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