First off as I right this, we are experiencing what is known as warm air advection or the transport of warm moist air from the Gulf into our area. This has been aided by a strengthening low pressure in Colorado and a warm front moving north. Temperatures are 20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. This will be a roller coaster week. After warming for much of the day tonight and tommorow, we will be in a spring-like pattern for a few days. Below is the GFS and CMC Forecast High temps for both Wednesday and Thursday. You can see the warm air surging north but also notice the mass of cold air not to far away.
Now one would assume that with such a warm up that a big storm system lurks near by. Last time we did but, as mentioned last night, we did not have the moisture in place for a major winter weather event. That system no model could agree as to what would take place. So one week later why would that be any different? Well there has been a TON of talk about ICEMAGEDDON OR BIG ICE STORM OR ICEAPPOCALYPSE. Well, this is what happens when you look at just one model all the time and not the greater scheme of things. Almost every time when you have a setup like this everyone flocks to just the data and not realizing alot more goes into the pattern. As we head into the weekend, things will become rather wet. Pictured below is the upper air pattern that will be responsible for the wacky weekend weather.
Precipitation this week and weekend will be a big factor however. Even though the severe threat is low I have a feeling that the flood threat is going up. Below is the GFS Friday into Saturday but remember just one model. This is showing a weaker impluse but the main energy comes through a couple of days later. The EURO which cannot be shown due to legality issues also shows a similar setup. This is why confidence is increasing on a rainy vs icy setup. I also would not be surprised to have a few thunderstorms in the state as well given the pattern and eventual strength of the upper low. As always the eventual track will play a big role but climatology tells us in the weather world that this is a rainy setup.
Pictured above is a map that can be trusted. This is the hazards map from NOAA. This is much more reliable than any model data. As you can see, the ice threat stays north of the state. Both the setup and climatology supports this as well. This is why there is more to forecasting than just the models. Models are not a forecast just a tool and anyone using them for that purpose is not doing this the right way.
So the week ahead will have all but the kitchen sink:
*Above average temps
*Above average rainfall
*ALOT of wind thanks to strengthening low pressures
*Heavy rain potential
*Warm to cold back to warm within a 48 hour stretch
*Severe threat low at this time
*winter weather threat very low at this time
As with any forecast and setup alot can and will change. One thing is certain and that is plenty of moisture will be around. The eventual track and strength of the low pressure will determine what we get. Heavy rain and flooding look to be more of a threat than winter weather. Severe weather is a possibility but that threat is low at this time but will be monitored. As always we will keep you up to date with any changes.