Hi everyone, this is Co-CEO/Long range forecaster Cameron back here again to bring you guys our official 2018 spring outlook. As mentioned last night during the live stream, this outlook will be rather different from the previous springs we've had up until now.
Our precipitation outlook for Spring 2018
Due to the abnormal warm water temps in the gulf of Mexico and with a weak presence of La Nina, We are fully expecting that severe weather will ramp up across the Midwest and the southern plains this spring. Although previous years have blessed us with relatively quiet tornado seasons, we are fully expecting this spring to have a normal/slightly above normal tornado season across our area and into the Midwest. The subtropical jet looks to intensify as we head into the spring months as well so as a result, we will also see above normal rainfall across the area and into the Southeast. Farther to the north, where the polar jet may make some brief comebacks, We are expecting increased snowfall in the northern plains and into the northeast. Across the southwest, we are expecting precipitation to be below normal due to fast moving systems going over the area. Wildfire danger could be on the increase in that area especially as we head towards the later part of spring. Across the northwest, We expect precipitation to be near normal for spring as systems ride along the weakening polar jet.
Our temperature outlook for Spring 2018
Due to a strengthening Southeast ridge , We fully expect to see Well above normal temperatures from the South half of the united states. Temperatures could be pretty warm especially across the southeast due to the abnormal warm Gulf of Mexico. Farther north, under the influence of the weakening polar jet, temps looks to be well below normal from the northern plains into the northeast. And across the northwest, temps looks to be near normal as they will have slightly less influence from the polar jet.
La Nina breaking away
This was La Nina at the beginning of 2018. As you can tell with the darker blue colors, La Nina was borderline moderate at the beginning of January.
Here we are now as of today, Weak La Nina is still there however the darker colors are now starting to fade away and even some orange color is starting to mix in. That's a good sign that La Nina is fading away.
La Nina and Severe Weather
During La Nina springs, We typically see a good bit of tornadoes and hail events here in the Natural state due to the strengthening Southeast ridge and the subtropical jet over our area.
Due to a normal/slightly above normal tornado season approaching, We here at Arkansas Weather Watchers, recommend that you guys check out some storm shelters. Our friends at Menard Storm Shelters offer great storm shelters and at very decent prices. They are cheaper than most that offer storm shelters and they also offer financing.