First things first, this weekend. Starting tomorrow (Friday March 3rd if you end up reading this late), a weak cold front will be making its way down south from Missouri bringing cooler air towards the region for the early part of the weekend. A high pressure system will move over the state over the middle part of the weekend, which will keep cooler temps over the state...but during the day, not TOO cold. Please note we are still dealing with the 50's through 60's for highs. Going into the last bit of the weekend, a warming trend is expected ahead of a storm system. This warm up will be a rather quick one and temps will be in the 60s and 70's before you know it. Temperatures will remain in spring-like temperatures for the rest of the forecasting period, which is out until next Thursday. This storm system is showing signs of spawning showers across the state. Instability looks too low at this point for development of thunderstorms. The following map will show what the current guidance is showing for Sunday. What is shown on the map is NOT what the radar will look like, the map is just showing where the general area is for shower development. Will this change? Absolutely! But for now it is something to watch for a possibly rainy day for some people.
Extent of severe threat: very low
Location of the threat: very low
Threats: extremely low
Timing: very low
Potential for any severe weather: low-medium
So as can be seen here, the confidence in ANYTHING is very low, but the potential IS there, especially given the time of year and with how warm it has been. We are going to closely monitor this threat as data currently has a possible severe threat sometime from Monday to Tuesday, but there are more questions than answers at this point, but we can guarantee we will get you the newest information as soon as it becomes available. You can trust us here at Arkansas Weather Watchers to guide you safely through any kind of severe weather. We will keep you posted and I will update confidence whenever more details become available. Have a good night and I will be blogging again soon!!