STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT…
COVERAGE HIGHEST EAST..MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FURTHER WEST FAST MOVER/NARROW TIME-FRAME DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT, HOWEVER LARGE HAIL IS THE SECONDARY THREAT.AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. BUT STILL BE PREPARED.
The pattern is progressive, and this will mean the cold front and storm system will be moving through also fast. You probably noticed the warm-air surging in Southern AR, however conditions are cooler and stable in Northern AR. There was an isolated thunderstorm along/ahead of the warm-front earlier, and as the warm-front lifts north the atmosphere will be essentially capped and there will be plenty of low-level clouds as it continues to lift north.
The moisture and humidity levels are expected to continue to increase throughout the overnight hours into the day Tuesday. As the warm-front lifts north and humidity increases the fuel or instability will also increase ahead of the cold front. The main upper level dynamics with the low-pressure system is anticipated to push through the Great Lakes, however there will be a potent strong jet-stream in the mid/upper levels pushing through which will add to increase the wind shear across portions of the region.
There are questions on coverage of showers and thunderstorms for Western half of AR, however coverage is expected to be a bit more numerous across Eastern half of AR where the front and stronger lift will be located. Given the atmospheric conditions…There will be a threat of damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado will be possible.
Most high-resolution model guidance doesn’t have much of any activity in Western AR, but the reliable global models are more aggressive with the coverage of activity. It will depend on the mid-level moisture, as low-level moisture and instability and even shear will be sufficient for thunderstorms/strong to severe thunderstorms. The highest confidence of activity is for Eastern AR and Southeastern AR, but much of the state has a potential of isolated to scattered strong to severe storms. Some places may not see much of rainfall. We are confident with the timing of front/potential line or segmented line of storms, the ingredients, however confidence is lower on the coverage of the storms and thus who gets what.