Since we are talking El Nino, lets take a look at the forecast as we head into Summer and the rest of 2019. Current forecasts are for it to remain in place for summer and even into next winter. The unsettled pattern we are in now could remain based upon this setup. albeit to a lesser extent as we head into July and August. Typically we get shut off from the Gulf and Pacific flows with the Bermuda high and the Sonoran Ridges to our east and west respectively. The jet stream moves north and we remain hot and dry with an occasional system or two. Looking at a weak El Nino in place going into summer, the ridges may have a harder time getting established or staying further west and east, leaving us in SW flow aloft. This would bring rain to the state off and on through the summer, thus helping to keep us "cooler" but humid. Will there be 90s most likely but IF the pattern were to hold we could make a run at 2 straight years of no 100 degree readings, which is uncharted territory for the Natural State. This part is a wait and see but it is nice to know that if you do not like a horribly hot summer, the trend is on your side.
To summarize this all up, we are looking at a continued unsettled pattern heading into Mid May with flooding issue most likely continuing. Heavy rain and severe weather potentials will be in place with temps cooler than average. We do not know yet how this will transition into Summer, but the odds are in the favor of at least a few less "HOT" days. At least we are having an actual spring this year instead of jumping straight to summer hot and dry, albeit we could use the dry days for a while.
We will be on top of each system as they threaten the state and be here to cover each event until the threat has passed. Thank you for making us your #1 source for ALL things ARKANSAS weather.
~Chief Forecaster Derek
GRAPHICS: PIVOTAL WEATHER; INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTIUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY