I posted an excerpt of the AFD. I think you're overestimating potential moisture and underestimating the drier air in place, The model amounts, especially 5 days or more out are definitely out to lunch, It's one thing to know the models, but it also is vital to consult local weather products, Area Forecast Discussions, Weather Summaries, Hazardous Weather Outlooks, soundings, etc as they can give a lot of useful clues that models can only guess about. At best, there might, underline "might" be a brief mix before the system moves out, but the operative is "if" it happens, not how much or where, especially this far out. When you're forecasting severe weather or winter weather, you don't want to needlessly alarm people or hype it.
Mentioned that in the forecast discussion today. Talked about all possibilities. No hype given just mentioning possibilities. Talked about all sceneriaos there.
We have been doing these informative blogs for years now without hyping events. Just keeping viewers informed. Cant not mention it especially with everyone else including LZK mentioning the possibility for Sun night into Monday morning and a map out. We know we have to walk a thin line but also want to be an informative page as we always have been...keeping people ahead. All for the love of weather bubba.
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