The period will be mostly quiet with partly cloudy days and nights with low end pops each day. Upper level ridge will develop over the Rockies and southern Plains setting up NW flow aloft. This flow will bring weak disturbances over the state, and given moisture and instability levels in place, there will be a chance of showers and/or thunderstorms, generally overnight as dying MCS complexes move through the mean flow. To pinpoint the exact track and location of each one is hard so opted to keep low end pops to account for this setup. Otherwise expect hot and humid conditions with highs in the 80s and 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Period will begin with the aforementioned ridge shifting to the east over the Gulf Coast region. This will leave Arkansas in a mean flow pattern, setting the stage for disturbances to interact with the moist air over the state. A cold front will attempt to move in on Monday, but given ridging to the south it will not make it through and stall out, providing additional lift for storm development. As the high shifts east, this will change our flow to out of the southwest. With a southwest flow setting up, this will bring more moisture over the region. Given moisture levels and a stalled front in the region, chances for convection each day will exist, and chances could increase as confidence builds on setup. This setup is very common of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) to move through and given experience with this setup, have broad brushed statewide rain chances to account for this.
There will be a chance for heavy rainfall next week, given the stalled front and higher humidity values. The heaviest rainfall will fall over the Arkansas River Basin, where it is not needed. A widespread 2-4 inches is possible from Texarkana to Little Rock to Cherokee Village points north and west. This would only aggravate ongoing river flooding issues and cause a slower decline in the water levels, albeit, they are going to drop slow anyway. Will have to watch for both flash flooding and continuing river flooding for this upcoming week.
Severe threat is low to very low each day. However, given MCS setups are notorious for busting forecasts, will leave mention of an isolated severe threat Tuesday through Thursday with damaging winds the main threats. This part of the forecast is still very much in limbo and will be fine tuned as we get closer.
Overall an active week is in store for the state, one we do not need. As we head into the start of meteorological summer, we expect a decrease in rain chances. Thus far, that has not happened and looking ahead through Mid-June, the rain shows no signs of letting up. Its long range but we will watch it.
~Chief Forecaster Derek